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2019

The Kashmir challenge

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12 Aug 2019 13:02 #374298 by chairman
Muhammad Amir Rana August 11, 2019



YET another intifada is on the cards in India-held Kashmir (IHK), which many believe would have a far-reaching impact on the geopolitical landscape of the region. While the international community is still assessing the probable responses by India and Pakistan, non-state actors are also closely monitoring the situation and exploring the spaces to exploit.

The Indian revocation of the special status of occupied Jammu & Kashmir has shut down almost all prospects for it to resolve the issue through dialogue, either with the Kashmiri leadership or with Pakistan. One wonders if India did not have any alternatives other than what it has already demonstrated in the form of strict security measures, communication blackouts, and draconian administrative measures to run the affairs of J&K.

The use of some counter-violent extremism, or CVE, terms like ‘reintegration’ and ‘mainstreaming’ by India’s policymakers and political circles suggest they consider the entire IHK population to be radical. Apparently, India is missing the mega blueprint to absorb the shocks of the measures it has taken to ‘fix’ the Kashmir issue once and for all.

Obviously in the absence of such plans, an intifada would be blamed on Pakistan. This would be an easy way out for India, but would come at a cost. Not prepared to counter the Indian move to revoke the special status of IHK, Pakistan is also confronted with a delicate challenge. However, an even more critical question for Pakistan is how to respond to the emerging intifada.

The dynamics of the insurgency in India-held Kashmir will be different this time.

The new intifada will have different characteristics from earlier movements. While it will mainly comprise nonviolent political expression, violent emotions will also be there. Emotions are running equally high amongst pro-independent, pro-Pakistan and ultra-radical segments of the resistance movements in occupied Kashmir. They can resort to violent actions separately or form an alliance to increase the impact of the intifada.

It is not certain how many members of the banned Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba are present in IHK and what the level of their operational capacity is. But groups like Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, an affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, are gradually making inroads into the ultra-radical militant movements in Kashmir. The AGH is also against Pakistan. The group is trying to convince other armed groups to form an independent jihad alliance against India. Recently, Al Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri had endorsed this idea. In this context, Kashmir-based armed groups like Hizbul Mujahideen will also be under intense pressure to reorganise their operational structures.

These groups can trigger a long-term resistance movement in IHK. Pakistan is morally and politically bound to support the Kashmiris. However, supporting the resistance movement will have serious consequences for Pakistan. The poor state of Pakistan’s economy, internal political crises and struggling diplomacy are factors which will limit active support to the resistance movement in IHK.

The IMF and FATF swords are hovering over the country’s economy. The world at large, including friends and foes of Pakistan, are least receptive to violent resistance movements. India knows this, and its media and opinion makers are highlighting this point continuously. India has chosen the best time for revoking the IHK special status when Pakistan is facing multiple challenges and trying to regain its geopolitical importance through facilitating the peace process in Afghanistan.

Pakistan has remained a scapegoat for US failures in Afghanistan. Similarly, India has always blamed Pakistan for its own failures in IHK. But the situation is different now, and it could be difficult to keep the escalation of tension at the LoC and Working Boundary to manageable levels.

Meanwhile, the dynamics of the insurgency in Kashmir will be different this time, where Pakistan will not be in a position to influence the resistance movement. As a result, Pakistan-India tensions could at anytime turn into conventional warfare; Prime Minister Imran Khan has already indicated this in his parliamentary speech. How can Pakistan avoid this situation?

Pakistani and Indian diplomatic confrontation has remained confined to two unrelated domains: Pakistan has focused on internationalising the Kashmir issue, while India exploits the militancy aspect. While India has played its cards effectively during the last several years, Pakistan is just on its way to regaining its diplomatic strength, not only through facilitating the Afghan peace process but also by acting against all shades of militant groups. There are apprehensions of a turnaround, although it seems complicated this time because of all the factors mentioned.

The leaders of sectarian and militant groups are trying to establish their relevance in the changing situation. Some audio, video and text messages are circulating in social media groups in which they are declaring their support for the Kashmir cause. They have not yet received a response from the state and media. Even the reactivation of forums like the Difa-i-Pakistan Council is not apparent; this was an alliance of small radical religious and political parties that could bring the people to the streets on such critical regional issues.

Pakistan’s changed approach can become its strength. The international community can see that despite the presence of extremist groups in the country and an emotionally charged environment, Pakistan has not allowed the radicals to hijack the issue and create spaces for themselves. This approach will help Pakistan win the trust of the international community and internationalise the Kashmir issue.

India will certainly have to face the consequences of the emerging intifada. But Pakistan should evolve a political and diplomatic strategy to stop India from holding it responsible for the uprising, and to prevent Delhi from resorting to ‘infiltration’ and ‘terrorism’ mantras to discredit the intifada. It will not be an easy task as India has already made inroads and gained support among allies of Pakistan over the last decade. The ‘militancy’ card has caused considerable damage to Pakistan’s economy and diplomacy, but India has now provided it with an opportunity to reverse the process.

It is an opportunity and demands unity from all segments of society, and from the political and security leaderships. It is time to put political vendettas aside and concentrate on the Kashmir cause. A protracted political crisis will only spoil the opportunity.

The writer is a security analyst.

Published in Dawn, August 11th, 2019

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12 Aug 2019 13:26 #374300 by ketchim
India has closed all the doors and blocked all the paths

these groups will ignore the Imran Khan led government .....

Back a man against a wall with NO exit, that man becomes a Desperado

and Desperate men will seek Desperate measures....

they better don't get hold of the Nuclear weapons ........

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12 Aug 2019 13:54 #374305 by chairman
this division will never be fixed

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12 Aug 2019 14:02 - 12 Aug 2019 14:03 #374307 by ketchim
The British made that Boundary line to :

Divide and Rule...

India is playing to the script from british Independence day ~

AND India will not have another separation !

Heck, they have not still gotten over the 1st separation by Jinna ~
Last edit: 12 Aug 2019 14:03 by ketchim.

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12 Aug 2019 14:26 #374315 by mapoui
fuck them..let them blow demselves to bits. who cares. I did. I changed my mind.

the will irradiate a big part of Asia, screw the BRI and the Zionist will win..and I mean Win. Russia will be screwed too and will be forced to make deals with he empire. the empire will gobble he whole planet and is wood for the people of the world.

if the world thought the Gulag Archipelago was the ultimate in human torture...den aint seen nutten yet. wen dem Zionist and dem take over every child will be fucked..no 2 ways about it. Bill Clinton, and dat Einesteen fella will come out of hiding..both will run children school systems

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12 Aug 2019 14:50 #374319 by ketchim
This situation has to be solved !
obviously they will NOT want another country to be formed like say, Bangladesh
BUT that would be the ideal solution ....

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12 Aug 2019 16:46 #374328 by mapoui
self determination, self interest, subjectivity on an individual and collective base is the bed rock of all relations and issues. if its nation or a region it always comes down to what the people concern want.

that's it..period end of story.

SO HOLD A GOD DAM VOTE..GIVE THE PEOPLE ENOUGH TIME TO DEVELOP THEIR UNDERSTANDING THEN VOTE.

LET THE PEOPLE SAY WHEN THEY READY TO VOTE..SOON OR LATER. MAKE SURE THE VOTE IS LEGIT AND GO BY THE RESULTS AND THAT ALONE.

the had a vote in Kashmir..from all reports it was a legit vote. A MAJORITY MUSLIM PEOPLE VOTED FOR PAKISTAN BUT INDIA WILL NOT ACCEPT THAT RESULT.

so there you have it..India has imposed itself on the situation in a most ridiculous way. India will have to leave at some point. there is no doubt about it. Indian will have to leave or it will have to wipe the Muslims and replace them with Indians.

that is unacceptable. if India begins to do that Pakistan will have to intervene and there we go.

there is bound to be war because Indian will not accept the outcome of the popular vote..will hold no further votes and will not accept the creation of an Independent country. all Indian will accept is its domination of a region that does not want is over-lordship

so a billion odd people are going to die over that piece of land. makes no sense at all.

all that Indian could possibly want can come from deals and treaties giving the region its independence or inclusion into Pakistan. if Pakistan absorbs Kasmir it would not change the relationship of the two countries to each other one iota.

but they are neighbors tied together anyway by that fact, trade, exploitation of raw materials, all manner of contact would have to be developed anyway. the parties involved will all get their cuts regardless..if the discussed it and made deals..mutually beneficial deals

skunt lunatics

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13 Aug 2019 14:51 - 13 Aug 2019 14:52 #374387 by ketchim
“ Do you think this is the democracy India claims to be? People are angry. Look around, there are only military

people sitting and watching.I want the government to restore our rights and let us decide our fate.”

Her friend Afreen said that “she feels really scared to see so many security people.

Can we really say that it’s the day of Eid in Kashmir today?”

Altaf Ahmad, 43, a cleric in a mosque in central Srinagar, is also upset. “This is a day of deep sorrow for us.

I have never seen this kind of Eid in my whole life. There is no sacrifice, no celebration,”

“Eid is such an auspicious day for us. It’s a day when we offer a sacrifice to Allah.

But we did not offer any sacrifice today as a mark of mourning.” he said.
Last edit: 13 Aug 2019 14:52 by ketchim.

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13 Aug 2019 14:56 #374388 by chairman
Is Kashmir india,S OR PAKISTAN

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13 Aug 2019 22:55 - 13 Aug 2019 23:17 #374401 by mapoui
Kashmir is for the Kashmiri. they are to decided their own fate. they decided already.. many times - always Pakistan or independence. it is insane imperial-minded India who cant be satisfied.

what is India's interest in Kashmir...define it comprehensively, clearly, totally. and when that is done follow it up with the next logical question: HOW BEST CAN THAT INTEREST BE ACHIEVED WITHOUT INDIAN MILITARY DOMINATION AND THE CONFISCATION OF A LAND AND A PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT INDIA, DO NOT WANT TO BE INDIAN, FIGHT RESOLUTELY NOT TO BE INDIAN FOR 70 YEARS NOW

that is the answer..sincere comprehensive negotiation by India with the intent to reach a solution and have it implemented, and adjusted when necessary over the time to come. India..Pakistan and the Kashmiri around a table talking, deciding.

and when deh done India leaves for fuck sakes, the deal is implemented.. whatever of the Indian interest India manages to accomplish at the table is implemented.

that is the way to go. nobody ever gets all they want..unless they hold people down and rape them.

you try to get all you want but in the process you have to compromise or get nutten...or get war: the person or people fighting back tooth and nail..and a whole lot of god dam expense over time in lives and money, terrorism, no security and one disaster after another

India cannot win in Kashmir no matter how long it takes. India simply wont win. 70 years and India has not won... so when then?

so negotiate India..talk with intent to solve.. and so solve the god dam problem that India itself caused/causes
Last edit: 13 Aug 2019 23:17 by mapoui.

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13 Aug 2019 23:03 - 13 Aug 2019 23:14 #374402 by mapoui
that is surely one reason why Imran pull back: why fight India when India drains itself in Kashmir?

support the Kashmiri thats all..and India can never, ever win in that event. the kashmiri will get support from Pakistan, China, Russia...which means India is stymied forever in Kashmir.

and as simple as that is for all to see apparently India herself has not seen that yet. it is in no other regional nation's interest for India to get Kashmir. it is not consistent with the universal laws of the UN for India to get Kashmir.

and all the nations will make sure that India never gets Kashmir..never...even if India sends a million soldiers. India will have to feed house and arm those million soldiers. and the region is going to make sure that that becomes the most expensive exercise imaginable.

and the Chinese and Russians may provoke a color revolution in India among all the suffering masses who starve while the Indian elites pour money into the military in Kashmir

Kashmir is going to break India in one way or another. already Indian investment of blood and treasure in Kashmir is prolly too huge for India to walk away..at least in the minds of the Indian elite.

so India will likely get vex at some point if they don't check demselves...deh will then do something unthinkable. that is when the walls will fall..all of them.

is Kashmir worth that?

nothing is worth that. India is lunatic
Last edit: 13 Aug 2019 23:14 by mapoui.

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15 Aug 2019 11:51 #374483 by chairman
Pakistan's army has said at least three Pakistani and five Indian soldiers have been killed after a cross-border exchange of fire in the disputed region of Kashmir, prompting a denial by New Delhi that there were fatalities among its forces.

Major General Asif Ghafoor, spokesman of Pakistan armed forces, wrote on Twitter on Thursday that its three soldiers had died along with five of India's when Indian forces opened fire along the contested border, known as the Line of Control (LOC).

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15 Aug 2019 12:34 - 15 Aug 2019 12:35 #374504 by ketchim

mapoui wrote: HOW BEST CAN THAT INTEREST BE ACHIEVED WITHOUT INDIAN MILITARY DOMINATION AND THE CONFISCATION OF A LAND AND A PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT INDIA, DO NOT WANT TO BE INDIAN, FIGHT RESOLUTELY NOT TO BE INDIAN FOR 70 YEARS NOW

hhhhhmmmmm.....written like a true muslim ;)
must be some hope fuh yuh rarse, yet !
Last edit: 15 Aug 2019 12:35 by ketchim.

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18 Aug 2019 10:38 #374552 by mapoui
no! I, me before muslim..muslim like me, not I like dem. I write dat long before muslim. all religion is impse includin islam...all ah dem

no matter wat you tink you see in the world religion on the decline and we can see the the time comin' wen deh will all be relic..with all their crazy psychotic gods and beliefs..finally humans winnin' a break for the collective from the total insanity of religion..and its related and blood brother insanity... CAPITALISM!!!!!

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18 Aug 2019 10:53 - 18 Aug 2019 11:28 #374553 by mapoui
NO MAN..i ENT TALKIN' LIKE NO MUSLIM. DAT WAS NOT MY INTENT IN THE LEAST..TO TALK LIKE A MUSLIM!

I jess pleadin' for some simple logic and concomitant sanity from those two mad arsehole nations and peoples..Indians and Pakistanis to wake up and smell roses if there are any in dat region..dat there is no reason at all to fight and stop the whole world from moving forward, leaving what remains of it for the Jews to terrorize in perpetuity

right now the Chinese hold the leading progressive mantle in global life. where they lead contains the necessary progress to get humanity to the next stage. humanity cannot afford to abort this chance. it is the las' skunt chance we have of getting out of the suicidal box Europe and the white man put humanity in

if Pakis and Curry Kids blow themselves they will irradiate that whole region, stopping the Asian progress dead in its tracks..no more BRI.

that is what the Jews want. dat is why they are up Modi's arsehole will hot little forks proging the innards of his rarse to start a fight, the fight... and not to be shy an' reluctant to use nuclear weapons.

deh have to stop the Chinese at all costs or deh lorse. they are prepared to kill the Indian, Chinese and Paki billions just like that to keep their global power intact.

dat is why Modi doing all them crazy aggressive, extreme tings..because the Jewish devil up he rarse stoking dat fiyah.all the time

Imran Khan know dat...dat is why he calm so far. the Russians and Chinese are also likely helping the Pakis to figure out whats going on, and to make proper plans and kerry out right actions that keep things from going ovah that edge

there is too much to lose here. indeed every god dam ting is on the table right there


Narender Modi Singh is one crazy, lunatic, egotistical cunt, a truly pliable an' insane man with ah button in he han'
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Last edit: 18 Aug 2019 11:28 by mapoui.

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