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Belmont 2019

05 Jun 2019 10:09 #372112 by mapoui
Ketchim..if I have the time I am going to talk my head off here. do not pay too much mind. your own choices are what is import and your way of getting to them. hold on to that.

I am totally lunatic now, out of things. I will not even bet..but I can talk for whatever use it is. I am getting old and right now I cant do anything right so I am not even trying. I have soort given up..or on hold in case I fll back into stride

there is a Canadian horse in there by the name of Sir Winston, he was foaled in Kentucky and began in Canada winning. his trainer is Mark Casse which explains the Canadian connection. he has a fine pedigree for the distance and he had a terrific race at Belmont in the grade 3 Peter pan..in which he ran second, getting to the leader and winner

that race was 46 1:10 1:34'2 1:46'3

man! that is some kind of running there. Sir Winston ran outside that pace:
48 1:12 1:35'1 1:46'4 and a half just just a fifth of a second from the win

he broke 9 &1/2 out at 4 furlongs he was 11 out at 6 furlongs he was 10 out by the stretch he was 3 & 1/2
and at the end second a fifth of a second from dead heat

that horse can run. and Casse made a rider swtich tp Joel Rosario..a rider who can be pure class but who is a kind of mounted, mysterious man who rides according to how the wind blows. this is set to run another big race, full of form, likes the track, strong pedigree for the D..istance and rider who can, and a trainer who can train lights out

but note that same trainer has at least one other horse in the race. I don't know what that means to the chances of of Sir Winston. but Sir Winston is clearly a threat for the whole pot

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05 Jun 2019 10:15 #372113 by mapoui
then there is this horse between Sir Winston and Ketchim's horse War of Will Intrepid Heart

oh mi god! look at trouble here. Perfect pedigree for the D, perfect lightly raced win profile with J R Velasquez on his back.

Intrepid Heart is trained by one of the greats and his last race was May 11. since then on May 25 and June 1 he has had two perfect preps. he is ready to go...and he must be considered for the win. all considered he is the horse to win the race

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05 Jun 2019 20:04 #372151 by ketchim
keep talking it out ! ;)

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06 Jun 2019 20:35 #372169 by mapoui
al day long while allyuh doing EID and having a whale..I wukkin' hard in the sun with some people..I helping to grow clean food. it felt so good working again... in the sun..even if fuh free.

and as the women say; O MI god! what a great day it was. they cud not beat this day..incredibly beautiful day...it almost broke my constant depression. i hope its the same way tomorrow. 2 days in row might do the trick

I tired tuh rarse sleep bussin mih but I handicappin' Belmont stakes to try make life easier fuh ketchim, captain and mudmen when all three might be the same one

anyhow I jess comparing #1 in the race the supposed speedster and expected pace setter in the race and on paper he cant even run faster than War of Will Ketchim choice. I dont think Joevia will be a problem for War of Will unless he uncorks a race on saturday he has never run before..dreamed about running and never thought he could run so fast

if he does not have such a race in his bag he will get beat by WoW and by some others as well.

but that is a sleepy conclusion and I going to sleep now. fresh tomorrow I may see it differently

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07 Jun 2019 11:18 #372173 by mapoui
as I was saying about Shanghai Bobby. sire of the supposed front runner in the Belmont tomorrow;

he is oriented to to speed as a sire..and he was a sprinter as a racehorse and won a lot of money at shorter races. I see only two stakes at routes he won of the 6 races he won in his career:

the Breeders cup Juvenile at 1 and 1/16
the Champagne at a mile ..8 furlongs

all the rest were sprints

one must go back 3 generations to find Affirmed in Bobby's pedigree. there are a few in his fourth generation of 16 horses:
Storm Bird
Exclusive Native
Blushing Groom
Mr Prospector
Honest pleasure
back by his fifth generation there are a few really strong route influences but they have never showed up in Bobby. will they show up in Bobby's son Joevia?

I don't know. A second look at Joevias pedigree reveals fully that his Sire War Front, also the sire of the race favorite War of Will, is also the sire of Joevia's Dam Peace Process. War Front is a popular influence for speed and distance.

so Joevia may be a better horse than he looks at first glance..which is reason why he is trying a mile and a half in the Belmont. His connections must think very highly of him to put him in the Belmont

However Joevia is not faster than that any of the other contenders for the win in the race so I don't really expect too much of a front running effort to steal the race. that seems now to be a media creation and not to be taken seriously

Most likely Joevia will try to win the race from a stalking position, or if in front only just, settling in at a controlled pace trying to excel off that controlled pace to the wiyah in the stretch. Joevai cant afford to run too fast early or that would eliminate any chance he has of winning. so if his connections are serious about winning the race they will hold him back, settle down and try to win with energy save down the stretch from a good position achieved early, likely on the fence

a very good and experienced rider has been chosen for Joevia..Jose Lezcano. if anyone other than the top jocks can do it, Lezcano can

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07 Jun 2019 17:29 #372178 by ketchim
good stuff ....I will have a look at put it all together in the morning !

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07 Jun 2019 18:51 #372183 by mapoui
#2 Everfast is a typical Take Charge Indy horse..poor win profile, late running, and can eff up a tri, super and hi 5 jess like dat.

the thing is they can run all day long..and the faster the race the better they can come home for a piece that upsets everybody

Joel Rosario can do what he did in the Preakness if he is in the mood. the Preakness was a pretty fast race that gave Everfast a chance and Rosario can take such chances and more..if he is serious on the day

but they have done even better than Rosario by putting Luis Saez in his place. that Luis Saez can ride man and he wants to. at this stage of his career he is very ambitious and good and smart. so Saez will be battling for a part of the Belmont. I dont think he thinks he can win the race but that wont stop him from trying to

so in exotics don't leave out Everfast..play him from second to fifth. the faster the race the more likely he is to be part of the mix

the only negative factor is that i don't like the two preps they stuffed into him in about 5 days. I don't like that and don't know why. they had 3 weeks to prep him in time. did he get sick or something and they cud not work him normally?

but Everfast is one of them also-rans who can run enough to spoil things for a punter if he is under rated

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07 Jun 2019 19:09 #372184 by mapoui
#3 Master Fencer is another horse up in there who is ticklish

First race in America he ran a nice Kentucky Derby in the slop..making up a ton of ground. from the second call to the finish. in fact he he made up ground from the start..from dead last 23 lengths of 19 horses, to 7th by 4 lengths

that's 19 lengths and 12 horses..just 4 lengths from the winner. that's nothing to sneeze at for such a horse from half the world away..fus' time

since then they have worked him 4 times, well spaced, at Keeneland twice and twice at Belmont..the last 2. the last two look pretty decent.

and Master Fencer has some nice blood in his PD. I like to go from about 3 generations back although five and six generations are not to be neglected. 3 generations back MF has Wild again from Icecapade both route influences. that is on the sire side of things Just A Way, a sire I am not familiar with

on his dam side he is out of Deputy Minister and Vice Regen both out of Northern dance a seriously strong class grass horse back in the day. these horses are strong route influences though mostly on Grass. but they produce main track winners too. so does Broad Brush from Ack Ack

so there is some route power in MF which is why here is here at mile and half in the Belmont

take good look at him in the post parade. Julien Leparoux is a capable rider. I don't know the Trainer. he is Japanese but the fact that he is here in these the biggest of races we must accord some credit to him

the crowd shud have a good idea of who MF really is and wont likely let him sooprise them. so where he sits in the betting is where he likely shud be. but if he passes my post parade eye-test he shud not be left out of the exotics

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07 Jun 2019 19:19 #372185 by mapoui
now you get into whom I consider the big 5

#4 Tax Irad Ortiz/Danny Gargan...a trainer I am not familiar with but who has an
but who has a good record. Ortiz is a top rider

#6 Spinoff Javier Castellano/Todd Pletehcer

#8 Intrepid Heart John Velasquez/Todd Pletcher

#9 War of Will Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse

#10 Tacitus Jose Ortiz/William Mott

and on the outside looking in with a stare is #7 Sir Winston with Joel Rosario/Mark Casse..the form horse

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07 Jun 2019 20:08 #372186 by mapoui
#5 Bourbon War

I don't like Artie Schiller as a sire and I have said my piece about him already..but looking at Bourbon War's pedigree again I am not so sanguine about it.

BW's dam is My Conquestadory who has started off with a bang as a dam with BW winning over 200k so far. he has taken 6 races to do it at a sale price of 225,000.00 they paid for him which is not so good

but Conquestadory's Dam is Golden Artemis from Malibu Moon who as a sire is nothing to sneeze at. there is the class on BW's dam side and its pretty good.

racing there are concerns:
he broke his maiden with a win then never ran on in the Remsen as a 2 year old in Nov and Dec 2018. he came back 48 days later at Gulfstream to win a 75k N1x, then was second in the Fountain of youth then once again failed to run on in the Florida Derby on march 30 2019

they said that race was a solid bid by BW but this is how he ran:
11 horse field he broke 9, was by 5 at the start from the 4 hole/ first call he was still 9 by 5 and a quarter/second call he was 7 by 4 and a half/third call he was 5 by 8 and a half/finish 4 by 7 and a half.

what the hell was so solid about that?

the race was a mile and a 16 and the splits were 48 and 4/1:12 and 4/ 1:36 and 1/1:48 and 4.

that's a nice race that a class horse that owners paid quarter of a million for shud run easily and contend or win that race.

then the game him a freshener as if he needed one from Mar 30 to May 18 for the Preakness. now note that he won his first race..and after that freshener from last year to early this year he came back with a win. but this time in the Preakness he cam back with a dud race

Bourbon war was 8 of 13 in the Preakness 10 lengths from the leader and winner WoW. since the Preakness he has had 1 prep which seems half decent. but Bourbon War has won only a maiden race and a N1x in his career..has been beaten in his 4 graded stakes tries to date, and was soundly beaten in all except his second place in the Fountain of youth at GP

he has been and is trained by Mark Hennig who has not been training successfully recently but he has been around a long time. the horse has been ridden by Jose Ortiz who is known as a very capable rider. so now they have chucked Mike Smith on his back what can we expect?

Ability times
24-2 18 Florida Derby
24-2 18 N1x
Ph-form ?
Early Speed 2

total points by ability 38
last 3 races he has broken slowly and made up ground in 1...the Fountain of Youth Stakes
his last race the Preakness was bad. the comment in his Preakness line by Brisnet is "no Factor"

there is no way but up from here. so watch the post parade carefully to try gauge how the horse is feeling and if he may run a quality race in the Belmont

I don't expect much. Smith is a very capable rider but can he turn this horse's fifth graded stakes into a winner? I don't think so. I don't think the horse is capable of that. of getting part of the hi 5? possible! but not a win. but we will see

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07 Jun 2019 20:41 #372187 by mapoui
#7 Sir Winston...an interesting horse who won his races on the Woodbine artificial surface..in a an unlisted stakes and a MSW race. between those 2 he had a third in Grey stakes at Woodbine.. grade 3 race.

Sir Winston was transferred to the US and into graded stakes racing of the top order..4 stakes in succession. he was interfered with in the Blue Grass but he has been , 4, 5 and finally 2 in his last at Belmont on May 11, the Peter Pan stakes.

the Peter Pan was an excellent race and sets up Sir Winston very nicely for this race the Belmont. is he capable of winning the Belmont? interesting!

anything is possible and Sir W is another one of those closing horses, who the faster the race is run up front, the better his chances of catching up to to the speed and imposing himself on the race. this was demonstrated quite clearly in the Peter pan which was a very fast race indeed

but there is no speed like the Peter Pan in the Belmont...Sir Winston wont get that kind of help in this race. so I have been reducing his chances as a result. Sir Winston used to run early in Toronto at Woodbine but he has not run early for 4 races now.

he would be better off if he returned to his earlier style on the A at Woodbine. or if he is really good at a mile and half. his pedigree suggest that he will be good at a mile and half..at doing the D. but if the pace is moderate he is going to have to deal with horses racing to the wire with energy still left in their tanks. Sir Winston might not catch up at all

ability times
24:2 18 Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2
24:2 18 Withers Grade 3
Ph- form A
ES-Early speed 2 based on his Woodbine form

total ability points 38 running style late/closing
Trainer Mark Casse..top of the line/Rider Joel Rosario a former top rider now at best a question mark

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07 Jun 2019 21:12 - 07 Jun 2019 21:29 #372188 by mapoui
to be honest I really don't know what spinoff has to offer here..he has not won any graded stakes races like Bourbon War has not and he has run 3 of them: the Louisiana Derby. one in Saratoga last year and the Kentucky Derby in which he was almost dead last

but he did score a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby which is a handsome thing for a kid horse. and he began racing with a +80 Beyer and kept improving until the Derby which was wet and clearly not to his liking. then again his jockey in the derby...M Franco is not very good..so my tendency is to draw a line through that race, and to consider this the real test of Spinoff as a race horse..with Javier Castellano up on his back

3 back in the pedigree of Spinoff is none other than Northern Dancer a major route influence. then there are Turkoman and Mr Prospector. then on top and below we have Danzig and Gone West from Mr Prospector into Zaftig as Dam and Hardspun sire

Hardspun is a very strong sire who has produced top horses all around the world. Spinoff's dam side is full or very decent hardworking dams who produced good horses that often won decent money.

and by pedigree Spinoff can do the mile and a half required by the Belmont Stakes. now he is set to run with Castellano up he should be given a chance at the win..though of the 5 I have listed as top contenders he is prolly the least.

Abts - Ability times
24 20 Louisiana Derby
24 20 Maiden race at GP
ph ? after 18 place of 19 in the Kentucky Derby
Early Speed 4 maximum speed points

total ability points 44

racing style early speed type/Trainer top class/Jockey top class. and I love speed. if I have a bias is for speed horses..not late closing types who disappoint more than they succeed

Spinoff could be a late developer like his father and will do better as the year goes on and next year his fourth year
Last edit: 07 Jun 2019 21:29 by mapoui.

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07 Jun 2019 21:28 #372189 by mapoui
#8 should go off as the fave in this race. I don't see anything wrong with that. Horse has the pedigree to win this race and he has demonstrated every indication that he is a class horse

he began with a very high speed figure and has improved on that in his other 2 races to date. he was beaten in the Peter Pan by Sir Winston..but that's ok. he had trouble in that race and it was his second off a lay off, in which horse often regress a bit only to come back strong in their next and third race.

in horse racing third races in return cycles are often occasions for big efforts by horses and their connections. there is every incentive for that to be the case in the Belmont by IH and his connections

24 20 Peter Pan Stakes
24:4 16 N1x First Level Allowance
ES 2

Total Ability points 38

Running style I call rate-able. its a flexible thing giving the jockey the ability to use his horse as the race develops according to what is necessary to contend. Horse has a strong pedigree and only in experience in tuff company is he suspect. he did not cope with the Peter Pan and the trouble he experienced. but that could serve him in good stead in this race

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07 Jun 2019 21:45 #372190 by mapoui
#9 War of Will..the most experienced and successful horse in the race. his Preakness win was most impressive, fast time and clear win

forget about his pedigree..PD. when a horse has established his quality he is to be judged on what he has done almost totally. only where there is doubt ought his PD be used in order to sort out the log jam

note: WoW was beaten by Spinoff in the Louisiana Derby


24:1 19 Preakness Pim
25:1 14 Risen Star Grade 2 FG
ES 4 maximum speed points

Running style rate-able/Trainer and Rider have been hooked up on this horse since late November last year...Gaffalione and Casse

definite contender for the win they will IH must improve, Spinoff too. we will see soon about Tax and Tacitus

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07 Jun 2019 22:00 #372191 by mapoui
#4 Tax a strong contender in this race, strong Pedigree for the distance from some top sires Arch from Kris S/ and dam sire Giants causeway

23:4 21 Withers Stakes Grade 3
24:2 18 Wood Memorial Grade 2
PH ? Last race 15 place finish KD
ES 4 Maximum early speed points
total ability points 43

Running style stalk/slightly off the pace. began his racing with a good speed figure and has improved every race. he is also familiar with the New York racing circuit and tracks though he does not show a race at Belmont

Beaten by Tacitus in the Wood Memorial Tax is ridden by Irad Ortiz one of the top riders in New York and in racing generally/Trainer is Danny Gargan with whom I am not familiar but who has a nice record of performance as listed in the racing form

horse is likely in with a chance if he rebounds with form from his KD failure

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