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Here are some powerful positive trends that have really paid off in recent years.
1) Six straight wins by the favorite (Omaha Beach)
The public has done a nice job recently of identifying a winner -- and there's nothing wrong in siding with the top choice so long as it pays! Not coincidentally, this streak started when Churchill Downs initiated the Derby points qualifying system, which weeds out some sprinting stakes winners that were good as 2-year-olds or at shorter distances, but often created a demanding Derby pace.
You may recall the Derby favorite had a rough run, going 0-for-20 between 1980 and 1999, before Fusaichi Pegasus ended the drought in 2000. Since then, we saw favorites win three of the next eight years, with Smarty Jones (2004), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008) in the years 2001-2008, before going 0 for 4 in the years 2009-2012.
Before betting on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, remember that you’re placing a wager against your peers, the general public.
Many have seen all the replays, memorized past performances and absorbed every data point related to 3-year-olds who will each be asked to run the longest race so far in their young careers.
RELATED: All Kentucky Derby prep replays
Count us in that group, and as further replay analysis occurred, six moments from the major Derby preps stood out. Are there excuses for contenders who enter off a defeat? Or reason a higher choice could be vulnerable?
Consider these -- and if you think we're missing a vital moment worth studying, include it in the comments below.