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The Kenucky Derby 2019... 14 Days Away

21 Apr 2019 12:13 #371033 by mapoui

who will be the winnah!

right now I think the Winnah will come from among 5 of the top 8 horses in points on the lis'

the top 8 are:
Tacitus 150 points
Omaha Beach 138.5
Vekoma 110
Plus Que Parfait 104
Roaster 100
By My Standards 100
Maximum Security 100
Game Winner 85

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21 Apr 2019 21:35 #371037 by mapoui
sorry..what the hell am I doing! I shud have listed my 5 this morning

deh are:
Omaha Beach
Maximum Security.
By My Standards

for the moment I don't see game Winner, Vekoma and Plus Que Parfait as in the running..aldoh I will take a long look at Vekoma before the Derby

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22 Apr 2019 16:07 - 22 Apr 2019 16:13 #371084 by ketchim
PlayOff Teams in Toronto gats me neglecting this !
I already paid for Belmont admission in June ~
Last edit: 22 Apr 2019 16:13 by ketchim.

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25 Apr 2019 13:20 #371115 by mapoui

Winning Streaks

Here are some powerful positive trends that have really paid off in recent years.

1) Six straight wins by the favorite (Omaha Beach)

The public has done a nice job recently of identifying a winner -- and there's nothing wrong in siding with the top choice so long as it pays! Not coincidentally, this streak started when Churchill Downs initiated the Derby points qualifying system, which weeds out some sprinting stakes winners that were good as 2-year-olds or at shorter distances, but often created a demanding Derby pace.

You may recall the Derby favorite had a rough run, going 0-for-20 between 1980 and 1999, before Fusaichi Pegasus ended the drought in 2000. Since then, we saw favorites win three of the next eight years, with Smarty Jones (2004), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008) in the years 2001-2008, before going 0 for 4 in the years 2009-2012.

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25 Apr 2019 13:23 #371116 by mapoui

Before betting on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, remember that you’re placing a wager against your peers, the general public.

Many have seen all the replays, memorized past performances and absorbed every data point related to 3-year-olds who will each be asked to run the longest race so far in their young careers.

RELATED: All Kentucky Derby prep replays

Count us in that group, and as further replay analysis occurred, six moments from the major Derby preps stood out. Are there excuses for contenders who enter off a defeat? Or reason a higher choice could be vulnerable?

Consider these -- and if you think we're missing a vital moment worth studying, include it in the comments below.

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27 Apr 2019 11:43 - 27 Apr 2019 11:44 #371167 by ketchim
The 2019 Kentucky Derby lineup will be finalized at this coming Tuesday post draw.

Two of the last four horses to win the Kentucky Derby

have gone on to win horse racing's Triple Crown ~
Last edit: 27 Apr 2019 11:44 by ketchim.

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27 Apr 2019 13:31 - 27 Apr 2019 13:32 #371169 by ketchim
Victor Espinoza rode the Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah
to victory at Churchill Downs four years ago
Mike Smith steered Baffert's Justify to a win last year.

Both horses won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes
becoming just the 12th and 13th Triple Crown winners ever !!! :)
Last edit: 27 Apr 2019 13:32 by ketchim.

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03 May 2019 17:29 #371359 by ketchim
Mapster, wha's the Final : win, place, show....names ?

I may end up at off track Sports betting bar : Punt and have a few Pints ;)

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03 May 2019 17:53 #371360 by mapoui
do you know I have found it impossible to focus at all and have paid little attention from about 10 days ago

this blasted thing with my mouth developed and I did not know what the hell it is..still don't, and its still there doh not as bad as it was before. I got to go for tests on monday but while it was active and very painful I could not eat much, was dizzy all the time..cud not focus

I cud talk but not fill my head with data and figure it out. I cud not sleep nidah and here I am falling asleep at my desk

its a pain eh. but I plan to look at it for most of tonight and see what I come up with. I don't think there will be any upsets however unless track conditions morph into hell. look among the faves for the answer..and they are evenly matched

see where people like Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz, Joel Rosario*, Flavien Prat, Mike. Smith, Luis Saez are. those are about the best and smartest riders around right now. 95% of the time the winner is in their hands

look for Johnny Velasquez as well but he has become kind of ticklish as he ages. make sure his horse has the capacity to win, is really ready to go and try. if he has the best horse he can win. but such as Mike Smith are likely to get the winner before he does now

there are a few other riders as well who are good enuff to win. I will be looking at rider movements to see if there is any suggestive moves late.

so I will be looking. if I find anything or feel confident about what I think I will post it up before 2 pm tomorrow. I don't want to be wrong eh so I will try to make sure I am not. if I am not confident I wont post up and won bet

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03 May 2019 17:57 #371361 by mapoui
you see..its easy for me to talk..the info is already inside my head. but all I can eat is bush, bush and more bush.

toady again i ate cucumbers and peppers and some chicken..one small meal all day long. and I have had to wash my mout' 4 times already for the day. my head is light light light.

I walk very carefully lest I find myself going in directions I did not intend to go in. I am not doing any money bizness. I gave that over to my accountant. toomany mistakes. but I am gone now..directly to the Derby

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03 May 2019 18:33 #371362 by chairman
What's a Good exacta

Always tell someone how you feel because opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye but regret can last a lifetime.

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03 May 2019 22:01 - 04 May 2019 10:10 #371363 by mapoui
this is a hard race man...too many seemingly equal horses. I got 8 more horses to do
so far I see 5, 6, 8 and 12......

but they are all speed. there is opportunity for a classy closer here...I am wondering about the 11..Ridden by Rajiv

16, 17 and 18 are in with a chance too but I got to look at them closely

I am not convinced by the Likely favorite Omaha beach. but those horses are evenly matched. its going to take work to separate them....
by rider and trainer
by PD for distance
by whose more form-full
by post position
all kinds of comparatives

if I find a powerful closer I will think seriously of him
(In fact the powerful closer is #8 - Tacitus)

but I am not convinced by the favorite. he is likely to be there or thereabouts but he can be beaten..more than likely will be beaten
Last edit: 04 May 2019 10:10 by mapoui.

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04 May 2019 00:23 #371364 by ketchim
Great Stuff , Mapster !
let's go with above ~

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04 May 2019 09:47 - 04 May 2019 17:47 #371365 by mapoui
look here ketchim! to me the most important horse in the race cud be #7 look at his running style, his rider, trainer and pedigree.

now his pedigree is a problem: his sire line is tops..Street Cry from Machiavellian etc but his dam line represents some serious questions. there are some real names in there..AP Indy from Seattle Slew/Nureyev from Northern Dancer

but the rest of them in there are tears..yet out of that crowd has come Maximum security. I think he can get the distance but the thing is how he runs..TO THE FRONT! SPEED ALL THE WAY..AND THAT'S THE ONLY CHANCE HE'S GOT TODAY..TO WIRE THE FIELD...AND IT LOOKS LIKE HE HAS PACE TO MAKE A SERIOUS TRY.
you see if the pedigree comes through in him..as it did not in the rest of them... he also has the class to do a face-twisting job on the faves

his rider Luis Saez is also an admirable jockey, skillful and smart. Jason Servis the trainer also is very experienced. he knows what he is doing. if that horse tries to wire the field and is successful to half way, 3 quarters, even all the way...look out. we have a different race than expected.

that is a distinct possibility for this race. if there is a real wire try then #8 is the man to watch..Tacitus. Tacitus has all it takes if he is ready to beat that Derby field, wire job attempt or not. a wire attempt could make it easier but Tacitus is a horse to watch all the way in any case

Tacitus...top class pedigree, rider and trainer of the top class, records to match

look at the Tampa Bay Derby. that is one of the fastest races on the page..the PP's or past performances...at a mile and a sixteenth: 22:3/45:4/1:09:2/1:41:4. look at how Tacitus ran down that speed. and he may only get better with that pedigree

take a look at them all in the post parade..try tell which horses are feeling fit and fine, happy to be there and will run the tract dong today. if all you expect looks that way there you go. if not adjust as you might

Vekoma, Omaha Beach, Improbable, Game Winner are all fine horses with this or that suggestive flaws..with the exception of Vekoma.. that make you consider others.

there are also some other good horses in there that are worth looks: Tax, Roadster, Haikal, War of Will

and there is also a sooprise package: #13 Code of Honor, with Johnny Velasquez up. there is a fine pedigree to that horse but mostly for grass but they do run on the MT very well too. that is... the sire line is the best part of his pedigree.

but his dam is from the Dixieland Band tribe which while not absolutely great are very good producers of winning horses at high levels

that #13 reminds me of a year when JR won out of the blue with a horse called Animal Kingdom...the very same kind of profile going into the race..very European and no one paying attention.

but Code of Honor could be dangerous if the lines genes are being transferred by the sire here Noble Mission.

especially look at the Trainer Claude McGauphey Third. he for sure knows what he is doing. he was the trainer of Orb who won the Derby a few years ago.

also watch if the rain falls..the weather and the effect it might have on the race.

its 20 horses and a lot need to be considered. but if the weather is nice it should run with that #7 trying to wire the field, wasting down the pace which means that Omaha Beach, Vekoma, Improbable and dem in real trouble to keep up and still have energy to try run past him and win. such a race will make things better for Tacitus

be careful! I will watch. I did all that work for you..and me too because all of this adds to my store of knowledge and experience making it easier as I go. I don't think I will bet the race. I am not quite on top of it as I would like to be

Also I am trying to win the Santa Anita handicapping contest..I have some work to do there. I am trying to win that contest..I am in good shape there

( I feel better today..a whole lot of the pain in my mouth is gone this mawning. intristin'!)
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edit: 04 May 2019 17:47 by mapoui.

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04 May 2019 10:03 - 04 May 2019 17:30 #371366 by mapoui
I dont see much that went wrong with Vekoma..in fact nutten at all. the problem I have with vekoma is Candy Ride his sire.

if you go back through the records since his arrival in running and breeding in particular, you will see every year the Candy Rides in the mix for top honors... but they never go all the way. they just never do.

I love Vekoma..and the rider they hired to ride him. if J J Castellano is on a horse look out. he may not win..nutten guaranteed but he must be considered.

there is nutten wrong with the Trainer George Weaver. he knows what he is doing..is capable of winning the Derby.

what I like about Vekoma most is not really Candy Ride..as I said I am always leery of the Candy Rides...but his damsire is Speightstown out of Gone West. Speightstown was a dynamite sprinter but he has produced runners that have won at all distances.

and he and his offspring are great on grass too as was Gone West.

Vekoma has his work cut out for him in this race. it does not set up in his favor with all the speed. he is not likely to win because of that reason but I do like the horse... full of class. he shud be part of the late running, in the first group of horses. look out for him in the future

all the best Ketchim...kill them! later
Last edit: 04 May 2019 17:30 by mapoui.

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