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Santa Anita Derby

03 Apr 2019 08:34 #370622 by mapoui

here is the PD - pedigree print out for Game Winner

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06 Apr 2019 11:55 #370730 by mapoui
it looks like a straight contest between Game Winner and Instagrand..with the others bringing up the rear positions

there are 2 horses in there who can sooprise or rather complicate the pace issue and the results..#1 Roadster... and #3 Nolo Contesto. those 2 have real quality names in their pedigrees but there are huge questions

Roadster cost his owners half a million+
Nolo C cost 385 thousand

now people do not put that kind of money down unless they have figured out ways to make their money back..and I mean ways...like stud fee up the road etc.

there are expensive services for buyers when they are looking to buy horses. so I imagine that all the horses on the derby trail have been subjected to great analysis by all experts who make a living off this commerce. all those horses..or most of them..cost huge amounts of money..geneticists, body conformation experts, racing experts, trainers etc who can tell something about a horse, know if it can run etc

but as far as Nolo C is concerned his sire is Pioneer of the Nile. that horse costs an arm and a leg for a jump. I would never ever breed a Congrats mare to Pioneer of the Nile at the price involved. Congrats is just an average to middling sire yet he sires horses by the ton. and I will never buy a horse with the Congrats pedigree dominant or prominent..far less for 385 thousand

Congrats sire is AP Indy a truly top sire. but his blood must be passed on by his sons ans daughters. if a son isn't doing it he isn't and that's that. Congrats is the sire of Nolo's dam..Applauding! Applauding is from a steady and solid line of dams that do not produce big winners but produce lesser winners all the time. they are not dams who produce classy winners.

all Nolo C has going for him really..on paper ..is is his sire line. that is a terrific line..one of the best in horse racing...Pioneer of the Nile who yet has some proving to do but he has produced a triple crown winner already. then there is the massive line up of PON's sire Empire Maker, Unbridled, Fappiano, Mr Prospector.

so if PON is enough then Nolo C shud give a good account of himself in the Santa Anita Derby

I feel the same way about Roadster as far as pedigree is concerned..not good enough. but it is important to note here that both of theses horses have run 90+ speed figures in the races they have run..bot have run 3 races each and they have been quality races..so maybe I am wrong.

but I would wait until the post parade before the race to scope them out before I bet. I must see those horses and try to determine from how they look and behave on the track, how they warm up and parade... if they are going to run well today

at the moment I am looking at 6,5, 3, 1. the other 2 horses do not figure

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06 Apr 2019 12:09 #370731 by mapoui
the BlueGras seems a lil more difficult doh I don't know how true that is

#2 Vekoma shud go off as fave. that seems fair, he looks like the winner.

Vekoma cost 80 grand. the horse right below him #3, Signalman, cost 32 grand and scores by my ability times as high as Vekoma. but Vekoma has 3 times to his 6 with stronger speed figures.

as it stands Signal man is at 5 to 1..Vekoma is 9 to 5..almost odds on.

the issue is I don't trust Signalman's pedigree. its not classy at all. but as a 2 year old he ran in 3 graded stakes..2 grade 1's no less..and a grade 2. he was second and third in the G1's..and he won the grade 2. he was off them from Nov 2018. he came back in the Fountain of Youth and was beaten into &th by Vekoma who ran third

Signalman has prepped excellently for this Blue Grass race, his Trainer and Rider are capable. Signalman's second race off the shelf could be a much improved race from his come-backer

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06 Apr 2019 12:31 #370732 by mapoui
next comes Win Win Win at 7/2..third fave

I cant make much sense of this guys pedigree but he has run some very good races and scores heavily by all systems and calculations
WWW has a top jockey on his back and a know name as trainer

Sir Winston..solid pedigree and trained by Mark Cass a top trainer with a capable Jockey up.Sir Winston scores 8 points below WWW and 5 below Vekoma. he scores the same as Signalman

next high score is Lucky Lee who is coming off a lay off. he has a capable trainer and an ordinary working class Joe on his back..with a very decent pedigree

other horses I have looked at are:
Dream Maker
Admire who scored heavily on my calculus and cost 360 thousand
So Alive

these are all possible for part of the pot

I have tossed Slib #1 although he has speed and one never knows
Market King
Chess Chief

I hope by game time to narrow this down to winners. I need to see today's fields at Keeneland and Santa Anita

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06 Apr 2019 21:23 #370743 by mapoui

#2 Vekoma shud go off as fave. that seems fair, he looks like the winner.

the Blue Gras....Vekoma won the race by 5 lengths

WWW or Win Win Win... beat out Signalman for the place. Signalman ran third with his suspect pedigree. and #1 on the card, SLIB or Somelikeitbrown ran fourth. I did not have him anywhere so my 10 cent super lost

my calculations worked out perfectly other than the super

I was not that perfect with the Santa Anita Derby although I still won as I played Roadster in combinations for try and super to win.

I played it this way:
results 1 -6 -5-3

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