oh man! I only had a chance to get a look at race #5 las' nite
race #5 is however a very, very interesting race..it wud be best to stay away from..of if you want to bet it because it can have big upset and you want to try take advantage it would be best to go right up to when deh entering the gate before you decide
the post parade and how these horses look for fitness and readiness top run at the moment shud decide this race. it is hard to decide now hours before with only the morning line odds as help
but I will quickly tell what I think at this point:
#1 Bold Mongolian
ahh! look at him..ah cheap rarse hoorse. he ran one stiff race as his first race. it is the fastest race on the page. he battled all the way from the bell to the finish neck and neck fuh a whole mile and got beat at the bob.
and dat was his first race. very interesting. horses doh things like dat often. and he so cheap, so I dug into his pedigree and wat do I find? lots of good stuff. unless he has one of his 4 feet shorter than the other..and other physically ambiguous features he shud not sell fuh 5K
but he did and he is a real contender in this race. he can beat them all if he runs back to that race...only #3 van go with him early and he will burn out by 5 furlongs and fade out of the race if he does that.
#3 is the favorite right now on the morning line- ML.. but I will not even include him on my bet. if I do it would be to complete the super jess in case
so I expect #1 to just about wire this field
#2 is a right expensive horse..cost 150 thousand dollars..but has run 5 times already on turf and on the main track and has not won yet..a very bad sign.
this looks like the weakest field he will face so far. he does have speed also but on turf. so he is moving from turf to dirt and cutting back. he shud be all legged up and ready to run, so he shud endure for the mile. ..if he likes the dirt ...which he did not appear to like in his first 2 races..which is why they put him on the turf
his pedigree says dirt and route running and has some class..which is why he cost 150K. but the pedigree must translate into ability and so far he has shown a bit on turf but not on dirt
#3 cost even more than #2..200 thousand dollars for a pedigree I don't like at all..that sire Fed Business is weak. he was a weak horse on the Kentucky Derby train and he appears to be a weak sire despite the big names in his line
and the jockey Mario Gutierrez is an impse. they must love him out there,. he gets horses to ride..good horse but he never does well much with them. look at this horse: he has run 7 under Mario and has faded in every one..all 7..on turf and on the main track..at this tract and at Del Mar
and they expect him to win today. I don't think so although there is one major difference today. he has a route pedigree and he is stretching out for the first time on the main track today for which he is bred..main track not turf
dat is for sure why they have him set up as favorite. but I will not trust him and bet him. if I play the race I will play him to end up the track..especially with that jockey on his back
his trainer however is Dough O'neill..one of the best in the west. yet he has been taring the horse from the start and he has not won with it..so that fact does not bother me
this is where the race really begins to excite. this horse has a nice little pedigree but is another cheap one. he has now a race under his belt and is bred for the distance. he ran on January 21 and prepped nicely on January 30
the trainer is very good with young horses, especially on turf..which is why he put this horse on turf to begin with...his strength. but he is also good with the youth on the main track
the rider is not great but he can win with a good horse. and this horse is somewhat interesting. he can run better today, prepped to run well, fit and all dat... and be a factor, prolly not the winner but part a lesser part of the closer up results
#5 ahhhhhh! Miss Campbell
Dynamite pedigree and cost a fair bit of money. Filly is a first time starter
her trainer is the handicapping problem with an overall poor record. I don't know who that trainer is..3 times in the tri-actor in 15 starts with 1 winning horse..which may or may not indicate some training ability
however a nice lil young jockey has been put on Miss Campbell and he can win with a good horse and can win with one not so good if the opportunity arises in-race
by pedigree/jockey/long time preparation for this race this guy is a shot
now we have a real puzzle here. this horse is potentially the best horse in the race. he cost 140 thousand dollars and has a very very good pedigree. his trainer is very, very capable in the conditions
he has a recent race of a lay off and he has had many prep races leading up. and his return race was not bad..middle of the pack finish..fourth out of 8 in the race
the major problem here is the jockey they have chosen to put on the horse. this Baze guys seems a bum now. he used to be a ride who could bring in horses. he was never a big winner by the numbers but he brought in a lot of classy horses and long shots
these days when he is on a horse in a race, he is the main reason why a line is drawn though it. but even by memory alone if this hoses is ready to run and his trainer sends him out to compete, he can do so and prolly win the dam race.
which is why seeing him in the post parade is best before one bets. if he looks fit, calm, muscular, well behaved but not dopey..look out!!
anyhow that #2 horse ran right out of the money. that shud not have been the case at all. that horse shud have been contending for the win..shud have won the dam race and easy too
that horse cost 150 thousand dollars. it has a mighty pedigree for the main track. every goddam thing was right for that horse to run well today and it did not. why not?
it could only be that dam Joel Rosario...potentially the very best rider in horse racing today but who has turned into a total crook right before our eyes. that horse cud fail today only because of a stiff..and I am sure that is what Rosario did