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Road to The Kentucky Derby

16 Jan 2019 12:01 #368216 by mapoui
LeCompte Stakes Grade at Fairgrounds on Satuurday

Past Performances of all the horses entered

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16 Jan 2019 12:08 #368217 by mapoui
my choices are

the favorite in the race is #12... Plus Que Parfait. I don't like him at all. I think he will run mid-pack at the end

I like the guy next to him Tight Ten. then I also like to compete in the race..#4 Mr Money. also #14 Admire...#6 Hog Creek Hustle..#1 Wicked Indeed

but be careful about following me these days. I have been in an extended doldrums picking no winners for some time now. hopefully will get out of it soon but I have been awful for some while now

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20 Jan 2019 07:35 - 20 Jan 2019 08:09 #368287 by mapoui
Maybe I am back...I had a good day yesterday....Before I fell Asleep

I pik 4 winners in all: 3 at fairgrounds and 1 at Santa Anita

the 3 of the horse I pik in win/place bets came second paying solid prices for the place

in the Lecompte I did not bet. how come? incredibe!
I did no sleep much on Friday night..and as the race approached I felt tired sitting in front of my computer. I was looking at race 11 and trying to figure out a bet and I fell asleep just like that..fast asleep. I woke up groggy, just as the Lecompte was about to take off

incredible eh. but look at what I said above. I did not like the morning line fave Plus Que Parfait. just like I predicted he ran a little better than mid pack fifth

the horse I liked because of pedigree ran even worse..third to last. the other 2 I liked #4 and #14 were both scratched. and #6 Hog Creek Hustle ran a magnificent second at crazy odds. and of course the #1 ran exactly where I said he would... fourth, to complete the superfecta.

had I not fallen asleep I would like have won that super. the post parade is the final decision for me based on how the horse looks. horses can tell you how they will run by the way the look in the post parade. and I know I would have tossed #10 Tight Ten because he did not look the part in the post parade.

but #8 did look the part of a winner. and so did #6 and #1. but it is too late to see all of that after the event, looking through the film.

anyhow I almost had the race nailed....and I feel better..no longer in doldrums.

what has me feeling best is how I scoped out the pedigree on that false favorite Plus Que Parfait..as the entire media kept talking about his royal pedigree and his love for great distances giving him a leg up on the Derby. man if you are going to win at at dam thing ignore the talking heads completely

Point of Entry is the sire of Plus Que Parfait and while there are great names in his ancestors Point of Entry himself does not appear to be passing on the Genes. that can happen and it appears to be happening with Point of Entry.

Point of Entry already has enough progeny and their results on the tract to try judge his quality as a sire. AND HIS PROGENY..ALL OF THEM.. HAVE DONE NOTHING OF NOTE TO DATE!!!!!!


it is possible for Point of Entry to hook up with the right mare and produce a classics quality horse out of the blue..but it ain't likely. and you cant put you money on that until you actually see it. and I measured the races of Plus Que Parfait and found nothing extraordinary in them

and on that I tossed him as a contender
Last edit: 20 Jan 2019 08:09 by mapoui.

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20 Jan 2019 07:46 #368288 by mapoui
here is the print out of Point of Entry's list of progeny so far. there is one horse..second from the top that has won 759,000.00 from 8 races : Analyze it2.. which is a good sum indeed.

what to do is to click the name and see what he has won..at 3 years old - 1 stakes win, a grade 3, the Transylvannia.....then a bunch of places and shows in more minor stakes.
his best was a third in the grade 1 Breeders cup

and that is the best Point of Entry, Plus Que Parfait's sire, has produced from a bunch of offspring, far, far, far from good enough. that is a sire who is not transferring or passing on the best of the genes in his line


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20 Jan 2019 08:07 #368289 by mapoui
and this is Plus Que Parfait's full pedigree profile

when they talk about hims being royally bred they are absolutely right; go back to 1942 where the profile begins in the sire line:

Royal Charger a sprinter champion into Turn-To who.who was champion in Ireland at sprints and miles etc. Turn-To was the father of Hail to Reason another champion who was so at the Classic distances..up to a mile and hall.

then we get to Roberto and Dynaformer who has not yet been named chief of the breed but who is such a great sire he surely will be so recognized one day. that is one consistent pedigree line let me tell you..top class all the way. Point of Entry shud be dropping big time winners like flies..but he isn't..has not so far..but when then?

look here..still on his sire line there are any number of great horses and sires..Nashua, Nasrulah, Bull Lea, Alibhai, His majesty Heliopolis and Olympia, Ribot

and the same pedigree class..I mean extreme class continues down on the damside with the incomparable Native Dancer/Raise a Native/Mr Prospector line into Seeking the Gold who is a pretty dam good sire himself

Then there is Buckpasser and Tom Fool, The Ribot Line again along with Nothern Dancer/Nijinsky..too many to list

when I saw that pedigree I said "I got him,,they cyar beat this horse!" i.e until I saw the poor Point of Entry was doing in the sheets

in handicapping I get into all those fine points. I have found lots of winners by extending analysis wherever it goes for at times that is the only way to separate contenders..to find the minute differences between then that can become decisive

if a horse has no form no matter how good a pedigree he has he cant win a race. he has to be good and in form or he will be beaten

same way no matter what he has in his blood he has to be configured to pass that blood on. if he isn't passing it on the line comes to an end in him or it can skip a generation..that his offspring are not good but some of his sons and daughters may pass on what he failed to pass on to them

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20 Jan 2019 08:08 #368290 by mapoui
I am giving you guys some of what I developed as a handicapper freely. be my guests

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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