Kentucky Derby

maybe he has the stamina to be the next triple crown.  I'll have another victory.

[quote author=ketchim link=topic=66068.msg415231#msg415231 date=1336406447]
I cannot see a Triple Crown Winner ...

That was a Fluke with a canadian Jockey on Board !
[/quote]

it was no fluke Kecthie.  that Flower Alley horse is for real.
and in hindsight as usual it turned out ot be a simple race to figure out..save I did not figure it out.
the key is:  NEVER GET CAUGHT UP IN THE DERBY HYPE!  IT WILL ALWAYS MISDIRECT YOU!

I'll Have Another, by Flower Alley from distorted Humor/by Arch's Gal Edith by Arch...is good pedigree for a bit of class..especially Distorted Humor and for distance. and distance as well!  a mile and a quarter/mile and a half should be no propbem for this horse.

on his mothers side he has Kris S a notable route influence/and in the Kris S line there is the great Roberto, a very strong distance and class influence.

except for me the key to pedigree is if the sire and the dam are transmitting the class genes in their lines in the breeding shed.

that can often be detected easily by the quality of the progeny of the dam and the sire. 

Flower Alley the son of Distored Humor, a very distingushed sire..Flower Alley himself won over a million dollars in purses..wasnt really cutting it in the breeding shed as far as I saw.  his offspring did not apppear to be performing up to the level of the quality in his line.

so I wrote off Flower Alley as a sire, saw him as one who was not really transmitting his class genes to his off-spring.

well he may not have been doing it previously..but he certainly did it with I'll Have Another.

I could have reasoned that Flower Alley would have produced at least one class progeny and this one might have been it.  I did not not although I'll Have Another bothered me from the start.

the prep race the R B Lewis Stakes was the key.  that was a powerful race but I ignored it.  the time of that race of a mile and a sixteenth was a minute 40 seconds, which is excellent time indeed. 

but I ignored it..prolly because it wasnt named the Florida derby, or the Santa Anita Derby, The Gotham stakes or the Woodward etc., the big prep races

lesson learned

Quote:[table][tr][td][/td][td][table][tr][td] [/td][td]Gens:  456789 [/td][td]Highlight:  StandardAll DuplicatesCross DuplicatesX ChromosomeFemale Families7 Gen Inbreeding [/td][td]X-Factor: YesNo[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table][/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td][table][tr][td][/td][td][center]Reports [/center][/td][td][center]Maintenance[/center][/td][td][center]Subscriptions[/center][/td][td][center]Help[/center][/td][td][center]Message Board[/center][/td][/tr][/table]Horse: flower alley [/t][/t][/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td][/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td][center][table][tr][td]FLOWER ALLEY (USA) ch. H, 2002 DP = 10-2-14-2-2 (30) DI = 1.73 CD = 0.53 - 14 Starts, 5 Wins, 3 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: $2,533,910[/t][/t][/t][/t][/t][/t][/t][/t][/t][/center][/q][/t][table][tr][td][/td][/tr][tr][td][table][tr][td]Owner: Melnyk Racing Stables & Three Chimneys Farm
Breeder: Bona Terra Farms
Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, KY
State Bred: KY
Winnings: 14 Starts: 5 - 3 - 1, $2,533,910

At 3: Won Travers S.(G1), Lane's End S.(G2), Jim Dandy S.(G2); 2nd Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Arkansas Derby (G2), Dwyer S.(G2)
At 4: Won Salvator H.(G3)

Foaled May 7, 2002
Entered stud in 2007; stands at Three Chimneys Farm, Midway, KY[center](CLOSE)[/center][/td][/tr][/table][/t][/td][/tr][/table][table][tr][td][/td][td]DISTORTED HUMOR (USA)
ch. 1993[/td][td][/td][td]FORTY NINER (USA)
ch. 1985[/td][td]MR. PROSPECTOR (USA)
b. 1970 [BC][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td]RAISE A NATIVE (USA)
ch. 1961 [/td][td][/td][td]NATIVE DANCER (USA)[/td][td]gr. 1950 [IC][/td][/tr][tr][td][/td][td]RAISE YOU (USA)[/td][td]ch. 1946 [/td][/tr][/table][/td][/tr][/table]

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Eugene Melnyk is a rich Canadian and major horseman

the key to that pedigree on the sire side of the Kentucky derby winner is the Raise a Native Mr Prospector line.  that line has produced most of the derby winners over a a good period now.

and the winning trend for the line appears to be inbcreasing.

I will post the some stats soon on that winning trend

( However I had a right to lose as I did. I knew all of this long time now, and I still ignored that horse..although he bothered me at the back of my mind!)

Kentucky Derby Statistics
Most Winning Sire Line & Dosage Information

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• • [li]Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs.
    
    [/li]
  • [li]14 of the last 25 winners (56%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
    
    [/li]
  • [li]11 of the last 17 winners (65%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.
    
    [/li]
  • [li]8 of the last 12 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.[/li]

incredible!

the Raise A Native line has now won 9 of the last 13 Derbys for a staggering 69.23% or something like that.

ACTUALLY:  THE RAISE A NATIVE LINE SCORED THE TRIFECTA IN THE DERBY FOR THE FIRST 3 HORSES ARE ALL FROM THAT LINE OF PEDIGREE..I'LL HAVE ANOTHER, BODEMEISTER AND DULLAHAN.

here is the incredible pedidgree of Bodemeister:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/bodemeister

yu cant get too much better than that with horses!

man this is beating the hell out of me!!!!

I knew all this going in...and a lot more too!  yet I chose to ignore the one factor that would have so easily put it together for me. 

I chose to ignore the results of the Derby prep race the R B Lewis Stakes, a race run on the Santa Anita main track, which is dirt like Churchill, on February 4/12..at a mile and a sixteenth.

oh woe! ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl:: ::rofl::