huge race
The belmont stakes!!
krishna · 06-04-2014, 12:34 PM · 1 person reading this discussion
California Chrome draws No. 2 post for Belmont. He's a 3-5 favorite to become 1st Triple Crown winner since 1978.
he cud get his tail beaten in this race....
Commanding Curve can do it..Tonalist is very interesting. Matterhorn as well.
and expect General A Rod to run a big race to be part of the finish
Commanding Curve can do it..Tonalist is very interesting. Matterhorn as well.
and expect General A Rod to run a big race to be part of the finish
California Chrome according to the pedigree I see he has should be able to deal with a mile and half. Chrome has Mr Prospector, Seattle Slew and Northern Dancer all over his genes. that being the case a mile and and half should be within his capabilities. a tripe crown champion is possible.
saying that however we can look for one that may be able to beat him..one aimed for this race, in top form with a pedigree prolly even more suited to the distance than Chrome.
Commissioner, Medal Count appear to have the best pedigree for the distance followed by ROC.
Commanding Curve also is in the distance mix but his pedigree seems a lil inferior than those I have listed ahead of him. same with General A Rod who finished the Preakness in great form. he should run very well on Saturday.
Matterhorn's damside seems weak in terms of quality and production of class horses
Matuszak seem a toss on class/Samraat also on his damside which appears weaker for the distance.
at this stage I have Commissioner as the one most likely to defeat Chrome..with chances to a few others to sooprise...Medal Count, ROC, C Curve, General A Rod and Tonalist.
I hope to narrow it right down by Friday night
saying that however we can look for one that may be able to beat him..one aimed for this race, in top form with a pedigree prolly even more suited to the distance than Chrome.
Commissioner, Medal Count appear to have the best pedigree for the distance followed by ROC.
Commanding Curve also is in the distance mix but his pedigree seems a lil inferior than those I have listed ahead of him. same with General A Rod who finished the Preakness in great form. he should run very well on Saturday.
Matterhorn's damside seems weak in terms of quality and production of class horses
Matuszak seem a toss on class/Samraat also on his damside which appears weaker for the distance.
at this stage I have Commissioner as the one most likely to defeat Chrome..with chances to a few others to sooprise...Medal Count, ROC, C Curve, General A Rod and Tonalist.
I hope to narrow it right down by Friday night
AURORA, Colo. (AP) - A message to horse lovers and dreamers out there: This will not happen to you.
Well, almost certainly not. For all the buzz California Chrome's feel-good run at the Triple Crown is generating for horse racing, his too-good-to-be-true story has virtually no chance of repeating itself, according to the numbers.
The horse that will line up at the Belmont Stakes tomorrow is the product of an unspectacular mare and an equally unheralded stallion, bred in a state not known for producing winners, and owned by a couple of racing outsiders who were labelled "dumb asses" for even pondering such a thing.
Byron Rogers, whose business is scientifically analysing genetic makeup of racehorses, puts the odds at 50,000-to-1 against a horse with the strength and the stamina of a California Chrome ever showing up again among the 21,000 or so thoroughbred foals born each year. It's the sort of horse that shows up maybe once every three years, but even then doesn't always find his way into the spotlight, because success requires a magic mix of the right owner, trainer and opportunity.
California Chrome was born at well-respected Harris Farms in Coalinga, California, and trained by longtime horseman Art Sherman, the 77-year-old who returned to the big time nearly six decades after going to the Kentucky Derby as an exercise rider for Swaps, who won the 1955 Derby.
"This horse had everything go his way," Rogers said. "He had just about perfect genetics. Art Sherman is a very good trainer. Harris Farms is a good farm. You couldn't predict any of this at the start with this horse."
In fact, Rogers says, if California Chrome's parents were paired again, odds are only about one out of 10 their offspring would make it to a stakes race.
It's a reality that horsemen on the lower end of the sport, which is where California Chrome's owners once lived, are in touch with every day. Most aren't in it to reach the big time, only to break even with their expenses.
The odds, even when the bloodlines are much more refined than California Chrome's, are very much against it.
Rogers says between only about 3.5 per cent of thoroughbreds born each year are good enough to run in a stakes race. Only 20 can make it to the starting line at the Kentucky Derby. And yet, those odds have actually improved over the last decade, since the economic turndown also brought a slowdown in breeding. In 2005, the registered foal crop in the United States totalled more than 35,000. Last year, it was estimated at 21,275, continuing a steady decline that began in 2006.
Still, when owners Steve Coburn and Perry Martin decided to buy an undistinguished filly, Love the Chase, for US$8,000 a few years ago and breed her to an equally ordinary stallion named Lucky Pulpit, they knew they were buying into a fairy tale, the likes of which almost never end like this.
Rogers said his business of merging data and genetics has burgeoned over the past few years, as big-money investors uncover as much information as possible in the quest to find the right horse to take big.
"It gives some people at the bottom end of the commercial market some hope that there is an ability for them to have a good racehorse," Rogers said. "It tells them it doesn't have to go to (trainer) Todd Pletcher and be raised in Kentucky and have all these other things that trend in favour of other horses."
Rogers estimates about 40 per cent of a thoroughbred's potential can be predicted by genetics. After that, it's up environment and then a roll of the dice.
Well, almost certainly not. For all the buzz California Chrome's feel-good run at the Triple Crown is generating for horse racing, his too-good-to-be-true story has virtually no chance of repeating itself, according to the numbers.
The horse that will line up at the Belmont Stakes tomorrow is the product of an unspectacular mare and an equally unheralded stallion, bred in a state not known for producing winners, and owned by a couple of racing outsiders who were labelled "dumb asses" for even pondering such a thing.
Byron Rogers, whose business is scientifically analysing genetic makeup of racehorses, puts the odds at 50,000-to-1 against a horse with the strength and the stamina of a California Chrome ever showing up again among the 21,000 or so thoroughbred foals born each year. It's the sort of horse that shows up maybe once every three years, but even then doesn't always find his way into the spotlight, because success requires a magic mix of the right owner, trainer and opportunity.
California Chrome was born at well-respected Harris Farms in Coalinga, California, and trained by longtime horseman Art Sherman, the 77-year-old who returned to the big time nearly six decades after going to the Kentucky Derby as an exercise rider for Swaps, who won the 1955 Derby.
"This horse had everything go his way," Rogers said. "He had just about perfect genetics. Art Sherman is a very good trainer. Harris Farms is a good farm. You couldn't predict any of this at the start with this horse."
In fact, Rogers says, if California Chrome's parents were paired again, odds are only about one out of 10 their offspring would make it to a stakes race.
It's a reality that horsemen on the lower end of the sport, which is where California Chrome's owners once lived, are in touch with every day. Most aren't in it to reach the big time, only to break even with their expenses.
The odds, even when the bloodlines are much more refined than California Chrome's, are very much against it.
Rogers says between only about 3.5 per cent of thoroughbreds born each year are good enough to run in a stakes race. Only 20 can make it to the starting line at the Kentucky Derby. And yet, those odds have actually improved over the last decade, since the economic turndown also brought a slowdown in breeding. In 2005, the registered foal crop in the United States totalled more than 35,000. Last year, it was estimated at 21,275, continuing a steady decline that began in 2006.
Still, when owners Steve Coburn and Perry Martin decided to buy an undistinguished filly, Love the Chase, for US$8,000 a few years ago and breed her to an equally ordinary stallion named Lucky Pulpit, they knew they were buying into a fairy tale, the likes of which almost never end like this.
Rogers said his business of merging data and genetics has burgeoned over the past few years, as big-money investors uncover as much information as possible in the quest to find the right horse to take big.
"It gives some people at the bottom end of the commercial market some hope that there is an ability for them to have a good racehorse," Rogers said. "It tells them it doesn't have to go to (trainer) Todd Pletcher and be raised in Kentucky and have all these other things that trend in favour of other horses."
Rogers estimates about 40 per cent of a thoroughbred's potential can be predicted by genetics. After that, it's up environment and then a roll of the dice.
where do they get these asses from who have nothing better to do than to speak the obvious yet abstract..as if nobody knows..as if its some big thing. who is this rarse above here ::confused::
we know it is UNLIKELY to happen again yet it can. there is always a chance of a repeat..as early as next year fuh christ sakes.
and why must we deal with the abstract...that it wont happen again. time is to come and we do not know what the hell is configuring to take place. so any future scenario is conjecture, possibility, pure abstraction, not hard reality. and what the hell is the point dealing with such abstraction? there is no benefit to it.
stuff the article!
we know it is UNLIKELY to happen again yet it can. there is always a chance of a repeat..as early as next year fuh christ sakes.
and why must we deal with the abstract...that it wont happen again. time is to come and we do not know what the hell is configuring to take place. so any future scenario is conjecture, possibility, pure abstraction, not hard reality. and what the hell is the point dealing with such abstraction? there is no benefit to it.
stuff the article!
Chrome will WIN the Preakness :
and give us the TRIPLE ! 8)
and give us the TRIPLE ! 8)
I dont see how they could be skeptical of chrome's pedigree to get the distance. I combed his pedigree and he should get the distance. there are solid route runners all over chrome's pedigree. but there are 2 factors that may stop him today...
these factors are freshness and the fact that almost all of these horses have solid route pedigrees as well...in one or 2 cases - Medal Count and Commissioner - better than California Chrome's.
for these reasons..freshness - having laboured in the Derby and the Preakness... if Chrome wins today he would indeed prove himself to be a great horse. he is meeting horses that can run the distance and may in the end be better than he is..and who are fresher than he is, having skipped the Preakness and aimed for this race
Tonalist is also a horse with an excellent pedigree for the conditions of the Belmont.
these factors are freshness and the fact that almost all of these horses have solid route pedigrees as well...in one or 2 cases - Medal Count and Commissioner - better than California Chrome's.
for these reasons..freshness - having laboured in the Derby and the Preakness... if Chrome wins today he would indeed prove himself to be a great horse. he is meeting horses that can run the distance and may in the end be better than he is..and who are fresher than he is, having skipped the Preakness and aimed for this race
Tonalist is also a horse with an excellent pedigree for the conditions of the Belmont.
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