no time to get into the race really. I will try to look at it fully tomorrow before the race.
this race requires some study. it is harder than the last one primarily because there are 2 horses in there that can upset the whole applecart:
#5 Hoppertunity ridden my Mike Smith
#7 Street Strategy in particular...due to excellent pedigree and a rider who older now used to have a knack for winning these races
the top 3 horses would be:
#3 Tapiture
#4 Strong Mandate
#8 Kobes Back
the 2 top faves shud be Tapiture and Kobe's Back. but in the Southwest Strong mandate ran on for Second strongly..his first race since last November. he shud run better tomorrow which makes him a contender. and he has a pedigree that makes very strong for long races
and the pace of the race should also give #4 an advantage. there are 3 or 4 of them that should be going from early, battling for the lead with the Tapiture stalking that pace
Strong mandate should try to run them down late from the middle of the pack. Joel Rosario rides and he is excellent coming from off the pace
#7 is lightly raced and has a dynamite pedigree and a capable rider. I will have to decide what to do with him Tomorrow
same with #5..out of Any Given Saturday a pedigree about which I have reservations. but the horse cost 300K so at least his conformation is excellent. and he has dynamite Mike Smith riding
then there is #2 which is supposed to be a very good horse, strong pedigree. yet in the Southwest he ran well early into the stretch with every chance to win but faltered badly indeed. it seems he has distance problems at this stage that Curlin horse. best to play him in the exotics...for 3 and 4th place
but I will try to look at the race for an hour or so tomorrow to get a better sense of it.
next time get to me early Doorsra...like Monday or Tuesday. I am not focused on horses these days. I want to sharpen up for the Derby in may so I have to get cracking. so remind me next Tuesday and I will start work on the early on the next prep race for the Derby
well I looked at the race again about an hour ago for about 20 minutes, during which I downgraded the chances of numbers 5 and 7
the race is likely between the 3 and the 4, and the favourite #8 although I am not too happy with him on the bottom side of his pedigree
so I say at this point..if I see the post parade before the race I could change my mind:
on top 3 and 4
second tier..3,4 and 8
tier for the tri.. 4, 8, 5, 7,6,2
and for the super 8,5, 7,6,2,1
to try and cover for the 8 in case he wins
3,4,8
3,4,8,5
4,8,5,7,2
8,5,7,6,2,1
just guide line Doorsra. I cant be as precise as I would like to in this race
but the winner looks to be either of the top 3 here..3,4, and 8.
the 4 has an advantage given the likely pace scenario. he shud be ready for a top effort today, he has a top pedigree in Tiznow. his dam also has done well with her foals...and he has a top rider aboard with a good trainer who can produce winners of races like this
in horse racing you have to learn to trust your first instincts
I look at the race and the first thing I see is that # 5 and # 7 have upset written all over them.
that is what I said. I look at te race again and rightly downgraded #7. he was a toss. but I shud not have downgraded Baffert and Mike Smith on that 5.
allyuh know why..because his sire Any Given Saturday let me down in the Derby like 5 years ago. and when I went through his work as a sire up to now I did not want to be impressed. so I wasn't to my cost
I cud have played a saver on him like this way
5
348
3482
all
that would have cost me about 12 bucks for the tri and some more for the super but it would have cleaned the board..won everything in sight
I cud have tossed #7 as I did because Craig Borel simply does not win any more. he is close to 60 years old now and shud retire any time.
he wont ge getting horses when owners want to win. deh will pick one of the younger winning riders when hey are ready to win with that horse. deh prolly sent out Street Strategy for a prep today and wanted the horse in hands that wud not cause it harm..bring it back to the barn safe and sound.
anyhow I was almost there for a race I did not really get into. so I shud have followed my first instincts
and vibes me if you get an edge in this race