Changes to county championship coin toss take effect today

Delving a little deeper into the numbers reveals that there are certain venues where winning the toss gives teams a huge advantage. For example, in 40 Test matches played in Lahore, the team batting first has won just three times. It is very much a bowl first pitch.

By contrast, Adelaide is a bat-first venue. In the 74 Tests played there, the team batting first have won 35 times, the team batting second 19. In the last 26 matches, 25 out of 26 captains winning the toss have chosen to bat first, gaining a considerable advantage in doing so. Old Trafford is another example of teams faring much better when batting first.

It seems like no matter who crunches the numbers, and what data gets analysed, the results are more or less always the same, and it doesn't really make that much of a difference in the actual results.

Maybe winning or losing the toss plays an impact more mentally on the players than anything else, and if they lose the toss on a pitch that as a definite advantage one way or another, maybe it's that what makes the difference and influences the results? How a player reacts to the toss rather than the actual toss itself?

Just to add another log to the fire. While visiting teams are losing at an historically high rate, they are also winning more matches than at any other time in history. This is in large part due to the decline in the draw.

In the 1960s: Australia, West Indies and England all had winning records as visiting teams. Overseas teams played 186 matches and finished with 40 wins, 57 losses and 89 draws. A 21.50% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.701

In the 1970s: West Indies and England both had winning records. Overseas teams played 198 matches, they won 45 matches, lost 69 and finished with 84 draws. A 22.72% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.652

In the 1980s: West Indies were the only team with a winning record. Overseas teams played 266 matches and finished with 56 wins, 87 losses and 123 draws. A 21.05% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.643.

In the 1990s: Australia, Pakistan and South Africa all had winning records. Overseas teams played 346 matches and finished with 80 wins, 142 losses and 124 draws. A 23.12% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.563.

In the 2000s: Australia and South Africa both had winning records. Overseas teams played 459 matches and finished with 132 wins, 213 losses and 114 draws. A 28.75% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.619.

In the 2010s: South Africa is the only team with a winning record. Overseas teams have played 235 matches and finished with 65 wins, 114 losses and 56 draws. A 27.65% winning percentage and a win/loss ratio of 0.570.

Dilly,

What I gather from all this diatribe is, it matters naught whether you bat first or not.....

There are certain grounds, and I accept that in April, like Clacton on Sea, it may, in your head, make a difference, but it does not.

I have played and all you need to do is play.....

yes I think the conditions can affect things but if you have gumption.....

You will win or lose as a fighter.

Ultimately, it will always come down to execution and how players adapt to the conditions. There are definitely grounds where batting first is an advantage and vice versa, but the players still need to go out and perform.

There were, however, three trends I found while analysing the data: Teams winning the toss AND batting first have a 37.27% winning percentage while losing 25.81% of the matches. For comparison, there is little to be gained by winning the toss AND bowling first (such instances have resulted in teams winning 33.89% but losing 30.76%).

Conversely, visiting teams winning the toss AND choosing to bowl first have fared poorly - winning 20.41% of these matches while going on to lose 42.40% of the time. For comparison, visiting teams winning the toss AND batting first have won 26.80% of the time and lost 35.64%. Not great, but still 6.39% more likely to win and 6.76% less likely to lose.

Finally, there is a huge advantage for home teams winning the toss AND batting first. In these circumstances, teams win 42.02% of the time and lose just 23.58%.

tl:dr: Teams winning the toss and batting first are 11.46% more likely to win. Home teams winning the toss and batting first are 18.44% more likely to win and visiting teams winning the toss and bowling first are 21.99% more likely to lose.

One fantastic stat I was able to uncover while doing this research. In their entire Test history, India have won just 4 matches against the top 8 sides in the world when winning the toss and bowling first.

*Numbers calculated excluding Bangladesh and Zimbabwe due to their overall poor records which skews the data.

Not much in it so I would keep the toss as it part of the tradition and it makes you responsible for your decisions.

Making the captain responsible for his decision is a good point actually and it's probably one of the few responsibilities ges got left now, in this win as a team/lose as a team mentality that we have now in most sports.

Captain Sammy has been labeled a specialist "Coin Tosser" .

his Win record is quite exemplary 

Setting the field is still a huge responsibility of the captain and what sets a mediocre captain apart from a great captain. Cook has long been criticised for his defensive minded field settings. Conversely Mike Brearley is heralded as one of England's greatest captain's and kept his place in the side on that ability alone.

Darren Sammy is another excellent captain. He is very good at reading the game, setting his fields and knowing when to change his bowlers.