THE 40/30 RULE: Predicting Winners In Test Series

When I read this ... I thought 'very condescending', but then again it's easy to misinterpret things on a message board !!! :-\  Then I read ........

OUCH !!!! .... dearie me Rev !!! 

BTW despite whatever the percentages, I agree with the 40/30 rule for the most part ... seems logical but there are other factors ....

APPLYING THE 40/30 RULE TO THE ASHES

* According to the ICC Ranking prior to the series---England was ranked #3; Australia #5

www.espncricinfo.com/rankings/content/current/page/211271.html


LETS CHECK THE 40/30 PLAYERS FOR BOTH TEAMS

howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Countries...ryTeamComparison.asp


ENGLAND:

* There are 4 batsmen who average 40+(Cook, Pietersen, Bell and Prior) and 1 bowler with bowling average less than 30---Swann ----> That's 4 point for batting and 1.5 points for bowling = 5.5 points total


AUSTRALIA:

* There are 2 batsmen who average 40+(Clarke and Warner) and 3 bowlers who average less than 30 with the ball---Johnson, Siddle and Harris----> That's 2 points for batting and 4.5 points for bowling = 6.5 points total.


APPLYING THE 40/30 RULE

Australia 6.5; England 5.5


Rev

Yes, hit me - do the math for those series and impress me for those series? And England had won the previous Ashes and were widely touted as favorites - Oz cranked up their game this time around.

THE 40/30 RULE LOOKS AT THE INDIA/ENGLAND SERIES IN INDIA IN 2012

* It was a 4 test series from Nov 15th to Dec 17th 2012

www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/series/565796.html


GOING INTO THE SERIES---HERE WERE THE 40/30 POINTS

howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Countries...ryTeamComparison.asp


ENGLAND:

* There were 5 batsmen(Strauss, Cook, Bell, Trott and Prior) who averaged 40+ and 2 bowlers(Swann and Finn) who averaged less than 30 with the ball---> 5 batting points + 3 bowling points = 8 points


INDIA:

* There were 5 batsmen(Gambir, Sehwag, Pujara, Tendulkar and Kohli) who averaged 40+ and 1 bowler(Ashwin) who averaged less than 30----> 5 batting points + 1.5 bowling points.


40/30 POINTS going into the series

England 8; India 6.5

England won the series 2-1

Rev

An interesting statistic in winning teams is the relative batting contributions of the the lower order.

THE 40/30 RULE LOOKS AT THE UPCOMING INDIA/SOUTH AFRICA TEST SERIES

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQQLa6EZrvSWpcsJrJWnwAMwFBVgaZ1LQo7o1LtcMjpAZl8pJr1



GOING INTO THE SERIES HERE ARE THE 40/30 POINTS:

howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Countries...ryTeamComparison.asp

INDIA:

* There are 4 batsmen(Dhawan, Pujara, Kohli, and Sharma) who average 40+ and there is one bowler(Ashwin) who averages less than 30 with the ball

---

> 4 batting points + 1.5 bowling points = 5.5 points.


SOUTH AFRICA:

* There are 5 batsmen(Smith, Amla, Kallis, deVilliers and Plessis) who average 40+ and there are two bowlers(Steyn and Philander) who average less than 30 with the ball

---

> 5 batting points + 3 bowling points = 8.0 points


40/30 POINTS going into the series

South Africa 8; India 5.5

You folks know what to expect, right ?

Rev

Yeah ....a sound thrashing on those fast bouncy Pitches :

for the dust bowl curry powder trained Batsmen.

Already noticed both Dhawan and Kohli receiving their DUCKS.

in the recently concluded ODI series !

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRNKCs9UMjA3jIR5OTht1WyQEwfO-5zqOvkQ6DBOgEO_yF_z0PaDQ

The dhoti bais will be put to a serious test by the Saffies. But I don't expect them to be humiliated. Hopefully they will show some fight.

* The current WI team won't survive 2 days against South Africa.

Rev

India is actually in a position to win the 1st test against South Africa----according to the 40/30 rule----the South Africans have the clear advantage in this series. But the Indians have played excellent cricket so far.


40/30 POINTS going into the series

South Africa 8; India 5.5


NOTE:

* The Ind/Sa series is a 2 test series---the 40/30 rule is a better predictor in 3+ test series.


SCORES SO FAR:

India 280 and 421

South Africa 244 and 132/2

* SA requires 326 with 8 wickets remaining.

* Can the Saffies create history or will India prevail ?

Rev

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQmD3Q_03qGqyY4mX0Mx8OouAT_V8m7JIpzrDsPcdUm7HJ0WsQboQ

* Ashwin, the only Indian bowler with a bowling averages less than 30 is yet to get a wicket.

* Dale Steyn who has a bowling average of 22.45 took 1 wicket in the first test.

* Test cricket is the best---always full of surprises.

Rev