this is a hard race man...too many seemingly equal horses. I got 8 more horses to do
so far I see 5, 6, 8 and 12......
but they are all speed. there is opportunity for a classy closer here...I am wondering about the 11..Ridden by Rajiv
16, 17 and 18 are in with a chance too but I got to look at them closely
I am not convinced by the Likely favorite Omaha beach. but those horses are evenly matched. its going to take work to separate them....
by rider and trainer
by PD for distance
by whose more form-full
by post position
all kinds of comparatives
if I find a powerful closer I will think seriously of him (In fact the powerful closer is #8 - Tacitus)
but I am not convinced by the favorite. he is likely to be there or thereabouts but he can be beaten..more than likely will be beaten
look here ketchim! to me the most important horse in the race cud be #7 look at his running style, his rider, trainer and pedigree.
now his pedigree is a problem: his sire line is tops..Street Cry from Machiavellian etc but his dam line represents some serious questions. there are some real names in there..AP Indy from Seattle Slew/Nureyev from Northern Dancer
but the rest of them in there are tears..yet out of that crowd has come Maximum security. I think he can get the distance but the thing is how he runs..TO THE FRONT! SPEED ALL THE WAY..AND THAT'S THE ONLY CHANCE HE'S GOT TODAY..TO WIRE THE FIELD...AND IT LOOKS LIKE HE HAS PACE TO MAKE A SERIOUS TRY. you see if the pedigree comes through in him..as it did not in the rest of them... he also has the class to do a face-twisting job on the faves
his rider Luis Saez is also an admirable jockey, skillful and smart. Jason Servis the trainer also is very experienced. he knows what he is doing. if that horse tries to wire the field and is successful to half way, 3 quarters, even all the way...look out. we have a different race than expected.
that is a distinct possibility for this race. if there is a real wire try then #8 is the man to watch..Tacitus. Tacitus has all it takes if he is ready to beat that Derby field, wire job attempt or not. a wire attempt could make it easier but Tacitus is a horse to watch all the way in any case
Tacitus...top class pedigree, rider and trainer of the top class, records to match
look at the Tampa Bay Derby. that is one of the fastest races on the page..the PP's or past performances...at a mile and a sixteenth: 22:3/45:4/1:09:2/1:41:4. look at how Tacitus ran down that speed. and he may only get better with that pedigree
take a look at them all in the post parade..try tell which horses are feeling fit and fine, happy to be there and will run the tract dong today. if all you expect looks that way there you go. if not adjust as you might
Vekoma, Omaha Beach, Improbable, Game Winner are all fine horses with this or that suggestive flaws..with the exception of Vekoma.. that make you consider others.
there are also some other good horses in there that are worth looks: Tax, Roadster, Haikal, War of Will
and there is also a sooprise package: #13 Code of Honor, with Johnny Velasquez up. there is a fine pedigree to that horse but mostly for grass but they do run on the MT very well too. that is... the sire line is the best part of his pedigree.
but his dam is from the Dixieland Band tribe which while not absolutely great are very good producers of winning horses at high levels
that #13 reminds me of a year when JR won out of the blue with a horse called Animal Kingdom...the very same kind of profile going into the race..very European and no one paying attention.
but Code of Honor could be dangerous if the lines genes are being transferred by the sire here Noble Mission.
especially look at the Trainer Claude McGauphey Third. he for sure knows what he is doing. he was the trainer of Orb who won the Derby a few years ago.
also watch if the rain falls..the weather and the effect it might have on the race.
its 20 horses and a lot need to be considered. but if the weather is nice it should run with that #7 trying to wire the field, wasting down the pace which means that Omaha Beach, Vekoma, Improbable and dem in real trouble to keep up and still have energy to try run past him and win. such a race will make things better for Tacitus
be careful! I will watch. I did all that work for you..and me too because all of this adds to my store of knowledge and experience making it easier as I go. I don't think I will bet the race. I am not quite on top of it as I would like to be
Also I am trying to win the Santa Anita handicapping contest..I have some work to do there. I am trying to win that contest..I am in good shape there
( I feel better today..a whole lot of the pain in my mouth is gone this mawning. intristin'!)
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I dont see much that went wrong with Vekoma..in fact nutten at all. the problem I have with vekoma is Candy Ride his sire.
if you go back through the records since his arrival in running and breeding in particular, you will see every year the Candy Rides in the mix for top honors... but they never go all the way. they just never do.
I love Vekoma..and the rider they hired to ride him. if J J Castellano is on a horse look out. he may not win..nutten guaranteed but he must be considered.
there is nutten wrong with the Trainer George Weaver. he knows what he is doing..is capable of winning the Derby.
what I like about Vekoma most is not really Candy Ride..as I said I am always leery of the Candy Rides...but his damsire is Speightstown out of Gone West. Speightstown was a dynamite sprinter but he has produced runners that have won at all distances.
and he and his offspring are great on grass too as was Gone West.
Vekoma has his work cut out for him in this race. it does not set up in his favor with all the speed. he is not likely to win because of that reason but I do like the horse... full of class. he shud be part of the late running, in the first group of horses. look out for him in the future
mapoui post=371365 Wrote:there are also some other good horses in there that are worth looks: Tax, Roadster, Haikal, War of Will
( I feel better today..a whole lot of the pain in my mouth is gone this mawning. intristin'! ):lol:
nice to feel better by post time
Update, May 3, 2019: Haikal has been scratched from the race.
Also wednesday night's scratch of Omaha Beach
I just got back in..busy today all kinda ting to do..family stuff
you see deh scratch Omaha Beach? I did not even know that so out of it I had been till yesterday a bit. I was talking on the board but there was nutten else I cud do...cud not keep up