Horse Racing....

the me the biggest, most intractable problem in betting horse is that or jockeys..the riders of horses in races. theses  guts are seriously  difficult  to figure out..so much so I am thinking about giving up  racing altogether

here is a race just completed at Keeneland..race #3, on the turf.
I like the #9 as the horse to beat in the race ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Zito Nicholas.  the #9 is a closer and I hate closers.  but this one is ridden by Rosario, just abut the best rider there is on closers
all is right with the horse:  he has dynamite pedigree, a competent trainer.  he is in very good form.  there is no reason for that horse to loose the race save Rosario takes him so far back and out of the race, starts his run from so far back, that the hose does not have a chance at all to ketch up.

and even at that his run is so powerful the horse still reaches up for fifth.

Rosario fell asleep and by the time he woke up the horse lost all chances.  but did Rosario fall asleep... or did he throw the race ::confused::

I think he threw the race myself.  the horse was off at 6 to 1..a good price indeed but still fave enough to warrant a throw.  it is either that or Rosario did not care.  but if he did not care, why engage in that frantic energetic last minute run to the wire. he cud have just continued to lolly gag to the wire ::confused::

there are riders out there one simply cannot predict how they will ride races.  and they are the best riders in horse racing yet they are dangerous people.  it is clear to me at least that they  throw races all the time.

here's a list...starting with the worst Mike Smith.  Kent Desormeaux, Gary Stevens, Victor Espinoza, J R Velasquez, Rosario...at times JJ Castellano and Julian Leparoux, Gary Stevens.

there are some more whose names I will soon add.  these guys get the most horses on race days..and best horses too. and they 'throw' most of their races. 

at the moment it seems best to trust them only with the  truly 'big' mounts they get..in the biggest races, at the biggest tracks . it may be safe to count on them doing their best to win in those races, as they would be loathe to screw up the horses of very rich men, with the power to end their careers

otherwise it makes sense to go very easy with those jockeys.  they will burn your money easy.  they are all very good riders with records to match.  the trouble is the punter cannot tell before hand when they are going to use their abilities and experience to  win..or to lose.. a race

another to add to that bad jockeys list is is J Valdivia jr

at the same time you wud want to note the trainers of the mounts they ride as well for often it is the  trainer too stiffing the horse..and the rider following orders.

it makes sens to note who are the riders who score consistently and work with them for your wins.

but as time passes jockeys change.  they  all do.  there was a time when no rider cud be counted on more than Joel Rosario..when he used to ride in California.  then he came east to New York and all fell down with him.  he won his share for awhile  then it soon became clear he had begun to lose races he shud win easily.

it makes sense just to learn racing by watching a whole lot of races, never betting, simply watching..riders, trainers, who ran to odds often..who  did not.

I just looked at this race here the fifth at Keeneland just finished.  Rosario on again was  on the #12 which was a difficult post for the style of his horse.  he ran third this time save he shud have won again.

#9 was also a fave at 5 to 1.  he never tried in the race although  that horse  is so good in the company of today's horses he was in a  position to win from start to finish.  he  simply did not  try, his jockey never tried.  that cud only be directions from the trainer.  'don't try to win today' would have been what he  would have told his  jockey. 

yet the punters bet that horse down to 5 to 1 and got all their money burned..juss like that > > >

so what is your winnings

[quote author=The Captain link=topic=109332.msg734907#msg734907 date=1492631723]
so what is your winnings




[/quote]

today I am losing 8 dollars.. at this point

time fuh ah creative sandwich