It would appear that Dale Steyn will miss the third Test against England in Johannesburg after he was forced to see another specialist regarding the shoulder injury he sustained in the first Test in Durban.
With no muscle or ligament damage diagnosed, it appears that rest is the only cure and South Africa are unlikely to risk him.
Unfortunately, Steyn is now reaching that age where most bowlers decline - in form, fitness and ability. He suffered a groin injury against India last year and now this shoulder injury. Is this the beginning of the end for Steyn?
It might be a bit premature to say it's the beginning of the end just yet but he's certainly not getting any younger and the injuries do seem to be coming more and more frequent these days and no matter what age you are, that's never a good sign.
Last year, Steyn took just 17 Test match wickets, the fewest in a year since he became a regular in the South African team.
Historically, bowlers have fallen off a cliff after turning 33, whether it be through injuries, a lack of pace or a decline in ability. In the history of the game, just 20 pace bowlers have taken 50 wickets after turning 33, and only 12 have achieved that feat since 1985. Very few pace bowlers continue on past the age of 33 and even fewer are successful.
It was confirmed today that Steyn will indeed miss the third Test due to his shoulder injury.
It will be interesting to see whether South Africa opts to use a spinner at the Wanderers. Typically, the Wanderers offers more pace and bounce for the seamers, but I know that Coach Domingo has spoken on record on numerous instances of liking to have at least one full-time spinner in the side for balance.
[quote author=dillinger10 link=topic=102098.msg673602#msg673602 date=1452635855]
It was confirmed today that Steyn will indeed miss the third Test due to his shoulder injury.
It will be interesting to see whether South Africa opts to use a spinner at the Wanderers. Typically, the Wanderers offers more pace and bounce for the seamers, but I know that Coach Domingo has spoken on record on numerous instances of liking to have at least one full-time spinner in the side for balance.
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With the stars quoted in the previous post, it might also beg the question will he return to play cricket for South Africa ever again?
I'd like to think he will in some capacity because if not, it will have been a sad way to end his international career.
[quote author=pwarbi link=topic=102098.msg673628#msg673628 date=1452694959]
With the stars quoted in the previous post, it might also beg the question will he return to play cricket for South Africa ever again?
I'd like to think he will in some capacity because if not, it will have been a sad way to end his international career.
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I think there is no doubting that he will bowl again for South Africa, the bigger question is for how much longer and how effective will he be. I am currently putting together an article on how cricketers have fared after turning 33. The data does make for some grim reading, but there are a few exceptions to the rule (namely McGrath and Walsh).
Far from finished this lad.
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Since the end of WWII, 72 pace bowlers have taken a minimum of 10 wickets after turning 33. Since the turn of this century, that number drops to 22.
Looking at the data since WWII, of the 72 pace bowlers, 27 had a strike-rate under 60 (but only 9 of those had a strike-rate under 50) and another 13 had a strike-rate under 70. The average strike-rate for these bowlers was 72.40.
After turning 33, Botham had a strike-rate of 101.4, Wasim Akram 78.6, Dennis Lillee 73.6 and Zaheer Khan 77.5.
On the other end of the spectrum, Joel Garner picked up 34 wickets with a strike-rate of 35.8. Hadlee proved ageless, with his strike-rate of 46.9, Marshall (48.0), Willis (48.5), Pollock (51.5), Donald (53.6), McGrath (54.4), Imran Khan (54.7), (Ambrose 56.0) and Walsh (59.3) all picked up a wicket under once every 10 overs after turning 33.
However, of these 72 bowlers, only 28 took 40 or more wickets after turning 33, and only 18 instances have occurred after 1980.
Regarding Test matches played - since WWII, 17 pace bowlers have appeared in 20 or more Tests after their 33rd birthday and another 18 appeared in 10-19 Tests. So less than 50 per cent of pace bowlers after turning 33 appear in more than 10 Test matches. The average pace bowler has bowled in just 23.59 innings after their 33rd birthday.
If you narrow the criteria to 20 wickets taken after 33, there have been just 6 pace bowlers to have taken more than 20 wickets at a strike-rate under 50 (Garner, Cowie, Hadlee, Marshall, Willis and Bedser) and just 21 with a strike-rate under 60. Very few bowlers manage to survive after their 33rd birthday, and those that do, see a noticeable drop off with the exception of a few aberrations. I will get the full article up tomorrow.