THE 40/30 RULE: Predicting Winners In Test Series

OK Folks:

[size=14pt]The most accurate predictor to date of the winner of any test series between two 2 cricket teams is the 40/30 Rule.[/size]

* What is the 40/30 rule you ask ?

Quote:[size=12pt]* 40 represents batting average---every player on a team with a batting average of 40 or more is assigned 1 point.

* 30 represents bowling average---every bowler on a team with a bowling average less than 30 is assigned 1.5 points[/size].

APPLYING THE 40/30 RULE:

* [size=14pt]When 2 teams meet in a test series---the team with the higher number of points derived from their 40/30 players will emerge victorious in the series 95% of the time.[/size]


[size=14pt]LETS TAKE A LOOK AT WI VS NEW ZEALAND[/size]

Click on the link for team comparison:

http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Co...arison.asp


FOR WEST INDIES:

* There are 2 40+ batsmen(Shiv and Bravo) and 0 bowlers averaging less than 30 = 1 + 1 = 2 points


FOR NEW ZEALAND:

* There is 1 40+ batsman(Taylor) and 1 bowler(Boult) who averages less than 30 = 1 + 1.5 = 2.5 points


[size=12pt]CONCLUSION---THE 40/30 RULE AS A PREDICTOR[/size]


[size=12pt]When 2 teams(WI and NZ) meet in a test series, the team with the higher points derived from their 40/30 players(NZ has 2.5 points vs WI 2.0 points) will emerge victorious 95% of the time.[/size]


There you have it---even though West Indies is ranked #6 and NZ is ranked #8----the 40/30 RULE predicts NZ will win the test series.

Rev

[size=18pt]ASSIGNMENT FOR POSTERS[/size]


* Apply the 40/30 rule to the Australia/England series and see which team is predicted to win the series.

Click on the link for the TEAM COMPARISON

http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Co...arison.asp

Rev

All dis statistical mumbo jumbo means dick all . Windies are loosin cause they are an undisciplined lot with the wrong players being selected 
Failures by the windies has no repercussions as heads do not roll    and mediocrity by the players  is an accepted norm

[quote author=Kwami link=topic=86067.msg538704#msg538704 date=1387149983]
All dis statistical mumbo jumbo means dick all .
[/quote]

;D    ;D



Kwami:


[size=14pt]* I see you hate numbers---don't worry---the 40/30 Rule is very simple----the Rev believes in keeping things simple.[/size]  ;D

* Take a closer look. The 40/30 indicates why NZ and Australia are winning their respective test series.

Rev

[size=14pt]BATSMEN WHO AVERAGE LESS THAN 40 IN THE WEST INDIES TEAM[/size]

Quote:37.00...Edwards

29.09...Powell

36.28...Samuels

25.36...Deonarine

26.38...Ramdin

21.97...Sammy

* The averages don't lie folks---that's 6 pretenders---rank shythounds you have right there.

* It's no wonder the WI gets beaten regularly in 3 days.


Rev

[size=14pt]NOW CHECK OUT THE SECOND RATE, MEDIOCRE WI BOWLING ATTACK[/size]

Bowling average:

Quote:39.39...Best

38.85...Gabriel

36.01...Sammy

32.32...Shillingford

QUESTION:

[size=14pt]How on God's earth can the West Indies bowl out any team for under 300 with those waste ? Other than Shillingford, who it appears can no longer bowl the doosra---Best, Sammy and Gabriel are rank shythounds---check their pathetic bowling averages---approaching 40.[/size]


Rev

[size=14pt]A CLOSER LOOK AT KIERAN POWEL[/size]



His stats:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/westindies/c...52932.html


NOTE:

[size=14pt]* In 57 first class matches Powell averages an ordinary 34.15[/size]

QUESTION:

* What is the likelihood Powell will average 40+ in tests ?

* [size=14pt]If you want to know how a batsman will perform in tests----take a look at his first class average.[/size]

* With an ordinary first class average of 34.15---the chances of Powell averaging 40 in tests is slim to none.

Rev

Good. Now explain how Bangladesh drew back to back vs NZ, India lost vs England at home, Pak drew 1-1 vs SA etc.

[size=14pt]TAKE A LOOK AT MARLON SAMUELS FIRST CLASS AVERAGE[/size]



Click on the link for Samuels stats:

http://www.espncricinfo.com/westindies/c...52983.html

40.06...Samuels first class average

36.28...Samuels test average(50 tests)


QUESTION :

What is the likelihood Samuels will end his test career with a 40+ test average ?

Rev

[quote author=Kyle link=topic=86067.msg538741#msg538741 date=1387161476]
Good. Now explain how Bangladesh drew back to back vs NZ, India lost vs England at home, Pak drew 1-1 vs SA etc.
[/quote]

* [size=14pt]The 40/30 rule predicts series winners with 95% accuracy---not 100%.[/size]

* Do you know how many 40/30 players were in the Pak team that drew that series with SA ?

* By the way, that was a 2 test series---had it been a 3 test series---SA would have likely won---the pakis pulled off a shocker in the 1st test.

* How about the Eng/Ind series---how many 40/30 players were in each side ?

Rev