The Derby and The Preakness!

well you see the way this race is setting up.

if that C C  is really good it will stalk the pace from inside and run it down.

the closers spould have soemthing to say in the outcome.  Kid Cruz may be the bet of the lot. 


Ria Antonia could also do it but less likely. that is a funny horse that Antonia.  I would bet it without question if  J J castellano was riding it.  now that Amoss has control and Borel is riding more of an enigmatic nature has been added to the horse and its potential.  one just cannot tell what it will do.

its last race wasn't so bad and it has worked very well since.  but Antonia has a funny past performance, had a big race in the breeders cup..but a lot has change since then.  trouble horse..must be figured out

on paper C C should win this easy if he can trace the expected pace duel and take off when they tire.  I dont know about the Belmont however.  look at the horse that have been targeted to the Belmont.  they will be fresh, rested and ready to go.  C C will having his third race in 5 weeks or so.  and the Belmont is a mile and  half.

Danza may be the horse to beat in that if he is sent. he has the pedigree to do it.  but they will have to change the rider.  Joe Bravo may not be able to cut it.  he is good but not the best. and he can ride terribly costing a horse the win as he did with Danza in the Derby.

I dont know about a triple crown.  a horse has to have real ability to pull that off given all the difficulties.  look at the way Pilico is configure and the post positions.  if the fave draws inside thats a disadvantage.  there are all kinds of possibilties and horses have to overcome then all to triple crown.

its real hard for a 3 year old.  that why it does not happen so often.  the triple crown artist must be among the very best quality of horses to pull it off

Quote:gary stephens  had a great ride last year

yuh see!  and I figure that last years horses are better than this years horses.  but Orb lost and I thought he was something special given his pedigree and all.

he might have been but the wet track of last years derby must have taken the stuffing out of him.  winning that race, back 3 weeks later for the Preakness and 3 for the Belmont he did well indeed.  but the fresher horse won.  and he was targeted for the Preakness.

so that targeting business is another factor in these races now.  owners have given up on a triple crown win and focus on stealing races with big purses. they want the money.  so a horse like last years Preakness winner was targeted for that race because he fit the race, speed, he got a nice post, distance all fit that horse and his connections knew that and sent him there

there is always some new wrinkle the trainers will be using.  the best handicapping tool is to try figure out what the trainers are doing, what is their intention in any race.  those guys are evil and you have to know that ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL:: ::LOL::

crap!

I have been using Brisnet past performances for the past month and they use a notation that is very similar to the Dailly Racing Form notation... but for different meanings. 

so all the time I have been reading the dam Brisnet wrong.  Brisnet even has the freaking post positions for the Preakness wrong and I was totally misguided.

luckily I decided to buy a Daily Racing Form Friday morning or I would have been lost

There are 2 ways to approach this race...that the speed will prevail..or that it will fail or fight itself to failure

in the first instance the better closers can be played on top along with the favourite.  so if a tri-actor then

1,3,10/1,3,10/1,3,10 +2,7

these post position numbers are accurate

1-3-10
1-3-10
1-3-10-2-7

that's $18 dollars for $1

if the speed does not fail

3-5-8
3-5-8
5-8-10-2-1

$22 dollars*

to try detemine what the speed will do watch how the main track plays all day long up to the Preakness.  if it favours speed all day then that si what will play in the big race.  if it does not then play the closers

also the post parade will be important in determining what I will end up betting.  I will look at the hosres to try help determine who will run well and who not

Do all of the horses that run in the Derby run in the Preakness?
No. Most years, the Preakness will attract the Kentucky Derby winner (for the chance to win the Triple Crown), as well as some of the other horses that ran in the Derby. But it often also brings in horses that didn’t run the derby.

The starting gate order and odds for all 10 horses in the field :

1. Dynamic Impact, 12-1

2. General a Rod, 15-1

3. California Chrome, 3-5

4. Ring Weekend, 20-1

5. Bayern, 10-1

6. Ria Antonia, 30-1

7. Kid Cruz, 20-1

8. Social Inclusion, 5-1

9. Pablo Del Monte, 20-1

10. Ride On Curlin, 10-1

Big Cat and Congo Man paying attention to the odds !

that superfecta with Social Inclusion need some thought ...

Superfecta: Selecting the first, second, third and forth place finishers in exact order.

Quote:But it often also brings in horses that didn’t run the derby.

those that target specific parts of the triple crown for the money..targeted horses.  your famous Oxbow was one of them.

they fit the specifications of one race in the triple crown and if they are food enough they are targeted for that part.  why ::confused::  all the purses are huge and well worth the effort.

thats a very interesting development well worth the a analysis

Can I drink Mint Juleps during the Preakness?
You can. But the traditional race drink is the Black-Eyed Susan (pictured above). It’s a mixture of vodka, light rum, Cointreau, pineapple juice and orange juice. Shake. Pour over crushed ice. Add a lime as a garnish

Quote:that superfecta with Social Inclusion need some thought ...

I have included Social Inclusion (SI) only in the speed half of my bet.  I don't think he will last. I expect that he will run like the wind and if he does he will not last.  he will so run because he will be afraid of Bayern. 

if those 2 spook each other we will have a closers jubilee they may also wear out CC.  but CC is also very fast and may be able to ride out any pace those 2, and company, set

but there is much I don't like about SI including his human connections.  I don't like how he faded in the wood..and this is a longer distance than the wood under great pace pressure. expect him to fade even if the track is fast