THE 40/30 RULE: Predicting Winners In Test Series

[quote author=Rev link=topic=86067.msg538754#msg538754 date=1387165291]
[size=18pt]For the purposes of this forum the Rev has chosen to KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.[/size][/quote]

When I read this ... I thought 'very condescending', but then again it's easy to misinterpret things on a message board !!! :-\  Then I read ........

Quote:It is a cricket forum where a variety of fans, some intellectually inclined other not, congregate.

OUCH !!!! .... dearie me Rev !!!  :o

BTW despite whatever the percentages, I agree with the 40/30 rule for the most part ... seems logical but there are other factors ....

[size=18pt]APPLYING THE 40/30 RULE TO THE ASHES[/size]

* According to the ICC Ranking prior to the series---England was ranked #3; Australia #5

http://www.espncricinfo.com/rankings/con...11271.html


LETS CHECK THE 40/30 PLAYERS FOR BOTH TEAMS

http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Co...arison.asp


ENGLAND:

* There are 4 batsmen who average 40+(Cook, Pietersen, Bell and Prior) and 1 bowler with bowling average less than 30---Swann ----> That's 4 point for batting and 1.5 points for bowling = 5.5 points total


AUSTRALIA:

* There are 2 batsmen who average 40+(Clarke and Warner) and 3 bowlers who average less than 30 with the ball---Johnson, Siddle and Harris----> That's 2 points for batting and 4.5 points for bowling = 6.5 points total.


APPLYING THE 40/30 RULE

Australia 6.5; England 5.5


Rev

[quote author=Rev link=topic=86067.msg538748#msg538748 date=1387162027]
* [size=14pt]The 40/30 rule predicts series winners with 95% accuracy---not 100%.[/size]

* Do you know how many 40/30 players were in the Pak team that drew that series with SA ?

* By the way, that was a 2 test series---had it been a 3 test series---SA would have likely won---the pakis pulled off a shocker in the 1st test.

* How about the Eng/Ind series---how many 40/30 players were in each side ?
Rev
[/quote]
Yes, hit me - do the math for those series and impress me for those series? And England had won the previous Ashes and were widely touted as favorites - Oz cranked up their game this time around.

[size=18pt]THE 40/30 RULE LOOKS AT THE INDIA/ENGLAND SERIES IN INDIA IN 2012[/size]

* It was a 4 test series from Nov 15th to Dec 17th 2012

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/se...65796.html


GOING INTO THE SERIES---HERE WERE THE 40/30 POINTS

http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Co...arison.asp


ENGLAND:

* There were 5 batsmen(Strauss, Cook, Bell, Trott and Prior) who averaged 40+ and 2 bowlers(Swann and Finn) who averaged less than 30 with the ball---> 5 batting points + 3 bowling points = 8 points


INDIA:

* There were 5 batsmen(Gambir, Sehwag, Pujara, Tendulkar and Kohli) who averaged 40+ and 1 bowler(Ashwin) who averaged less than 30----> 5 batting points + 1.5 bowling points.


[size=14pt]40/30 POINTS going into the series[/size]

[size=12pt]England 8; India 6.5[/size]

England won the series 2-1

Rev

An interesting statistic in winning teams is the relative batting contributions of the the lower order.

[size=18pt]THE 40/30 RULE LOOKS AT THE UPCOMING INDIA/SOUTH AFRICA TEST SERIES[/size]





GOING INTO THE SERIES HERE ARE THE 40/30 POINTS:

http://howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Co...arison.asp

INDIA:

* There are 4 batsmen(Dhawan, Pujara, Kohli, and Sharma) who average 40+ and there is one bowler(Ashwin) who averages less than 30 with the ball-----> 4 batting points + 1.5 bowling points = 5.5 points.


SOUTH AFRICA:

* There are 5 batsmen(Smith, Amla, Kallis, deVilliers and Plessis) who average 40+ and there are two bowlers(Steyn and Philander) who average less than 30 with the ball-------> 5 batting points + 3 bowling points = 8.0 points


[size=14pt]40/30 POINTS going into the series[/size]

[size=12pt]South Africa 8; India 5.5[/size]

You folks know what to expect, right ?

Rev

Yeah ....a sound thrashing on those fast bouncy Pitches :

for the dust bowl curry powder trained Batsmen.

Already noticed both Dhawan and Kohli receiving their DUCKS.

in the recently concluded ODI series !

[quote author=ketchim link=topic=86067.msg539008#msg539008 date=1387297177]
Yeah ....a sound thrashing on those fast bouncy Pitches :
for the dust bowl curry powder trained Batsmen.
[/quote]



[size=14pt]The dhoti bais will be put to a serious test by the Saffies. But I don't expect them to be humiliated. Hopefully they will show some fight. [/size]

* The current WI team won't survive 2 days against South Africa.

Rev

[size=14pt]India is actually in a position to win the 1st test against South Africa----according to the 40/30 rule----the South Africans have the clear advantage in this series. But the Indians have played excellent cricket so far.[/size]


[size=12pt]40/30 POINTS going into the series[/size]

[size=14pt]South Africa 8; India 5.5[/size]


NOTE:

* The Ind/Sa series is a 2 test series---the 40/30 rule is a better predictor in 3+ test series.


SCORES SO FAR:

India 280 and 421

South Africa 244 and 132/2

* SA requires 326 with 8 wickets remaining.

* [size=14pt]Can the Saffies create history or will India prevail ?[/size]

Rev

* Ashwin, the only Indian bowler with a bowling averages less than 30 is yet to get a wicket.

* Dale Steyn who has a bowling average of 22.45 took 1 wicket in the first test.

*[size=14pt] Test cricket is the best---always full of surprises.[/size]

Rev