The group match between England and New Zealand saw England score 172 for 6 in their allocated twenty overs. New Zealand replied with 52 for one wicket in 5.2 overs when the game had to be abandoned due to thunder storms and rain. New Zealand was declared winner using the D & L method.
Here are reasons why NZ should not have been declared a winner.
Out of 379 T20s played until this match, the team playing second has chased 173 or more only 13 times,
New Zealand has chased a target of 172 or more only once. But the opposition that time was a weaker team Zimbabwe.(NZ vs Zimbabwe at Hamilton 14th Feb 2012)
New Zealand successfully chased a target of 169 against SA a stronger team.(NZ vs SA at East London 23rd Dec 2012).
So going by historical data the chance that a team can chase 173 is 13/379 is 3.43%. Implying that NZ would have lost this game 96.57% of the times.
Going by New Zealand's own record, they have played about 72 T20s out of which they have won a game chasing more than 172 only once. But that was against a weaker team and in effect have never chased a target more than 172.
Hence the D & L method awarded the match in favor of NZ when the original result would have been a defeat in 96-97% of the cases. I
The flaws of the D & L method are:
a.) The Method does not take into account the likelihood or the chance that a team would have won or lost the original game, if it was not interrupted by rain. Here the original result could have been altered by the D & L method.
If one does not consider historical data and uses data that is related only to the patterns of scoring during an innings then,
b.) New Zealand being 52 for 1 after 5.2 overs could have lost wickets due to the pressure of chasing a high target. After 5.2 overs it is not possible to predict the outcome of the actual game with a 100% accuracy. If there was 172 runs to score and if NZ had been 140 for 1 after 15 overs and the rain had come, then we could be certain that NZ would have won in 90% of the cases.So after 5.2 overs there is only a
less than 10% chance that the prediction itself would be correct.
The D& L method should not be employed in all cases. It should be used only when the probability that its prediction is correct and accurate is high. In the case of this match, the progress of the game after 5.2 overs until the 20th over was not guaranteed and certain to yield a result in favor of NZ winning.
The D&L method should not change an easily predictable"original result" as in this case England would have won 97% of the times a target of 172 is set but still were declared "lost".
The author is a cricket fan and has also worked as a University research assistant. The author writes about Science, IT, Cricket and Current Affairs.
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