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2019

Belmont 2019

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07 Jun 2019 22:18 #372192 by mapoui
#10 Tacitus

I don't particularly like Dam sire First Defence, but his daughter Close hatches was a dynamite race horse and is threatening to be a top class Dam given that her first foal is Tacitus

Abts
23 25 Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 winner
24:2 18 MSW 70k Aqu
PH Q Third in the Kentucky Derby
ES 2
total Ability points 45

Tacitus can close powerfully and he can run early too. Pedigree appears strong enough for a mile and a half. his jockey and trainer are solid, top of their profession.

Tacitus has been excellently prepped for this race he is one of the ones

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07 Jun 2019 22:36 #372193 by mapoui
at this stage
Tacitus
Wow
Tax
IH stand out in that order. I do say that Spinoff can sooprise... and all of the rest can contend for parts of the hi 5

the pace of the race does not not seem that it will be as fast as I thought making it difficult for those coming late. those who will win should be the most in-form horses, who are most capable at the distance

the odds appear to be consistent with those horses...Tacitus, Wow, IH, Tax, Spinoff

if there is any kind of sooprise in the race it will be Tax who is at long odds as of right now. Bourbon War theoretically can sooprise I guess but I wont bet on him. Spinoff could be a sooprise given that he is right now 15 to one.

if he stays there..15 to 1 he warrants a mighty close look indeed because of his PD, his connections and the rider they have put on his back.

spinoff and tax are what at this stage, betting sooprises and upsets really are..horses that can, top connections, PD/rider, decent form etc., but ignored by the betting public for whatever reasons

if such horses pass the eye-test in the post parade they must be carefully considered

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07 Jun 2019 22:44 - 07 Jun 2019 22:45 #372194 by mapoui
two approaches can be made use of with ability times, measured from the middle of the races of horses..between 4 and 6 furlongs:

1. select the horse from the top 3 betting choices on the board and use the one with the highest ability points

2. select the one with the highest ability points any way, regardless of odds and bet that one. that can work at times too, with high odds and great payoffs

one caution: horses without speed are usually bad bets no matter how high their ability times total is. the race must set up fr such horses if they are to win..usually the race has too much speed that implodes the race, wastes off the speed leaving the race to be picked up by the late horse

very often even with a lot of speed in the race the speed battles each other to the finish line leaving the closing horse trying to make up ground as the race is run out from under him

in racing speed is almost everything..decisive. closing is at the mercy of speed. if they run and waste energy he has a chance. if not the late horses are toast
Last edit: 07 Jun 2019 22:45 by mapoui.

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08 Jun 2019 12:32 #372199 by ketchim
Gonna check Everfast !

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08 Jun 2019 13:30 - 09 Jun 2019 09:05 #372200 by mapoui
for part I hope..not for the whole. I don,t think Everfast has a chance of winning this Belmont :cheer: :cheer:
Last edit: 09 Jun 2019 09:05 by mapoui.

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09 Jun 2019 09:10 #372203 by chairman
Sir Winston takes it

Always tell someone how you feel because opportunities are lost in the blink of an eye but regret can last a lifetime.
cricketwindies.com/forum/

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09 Jun 2019 12:41 #372205 by ketchim
Ya Sir Winston and Joevia netted me a tidy sum ;)

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09 Jun 2019 20:48 - 09 Jun 2019 21:16 #372222 by mapoui

ketchim wrote: Ya Sir Winston and Joevia netted me a tidy sum ;)


good show man. you can pik my sense and leave the rest. for the next lil while it is better I talk. I am always strung out man..like a drug addict. Its like I have a head but its low blood sugar.

I tell you man this is the shits. I can go far, must always have food ready, medication and the strung out you see. that's the problem..not able to make proper decisions.

WoW was burnt out. Casse shud have cut him some slack and sent him to run around and eat grass in some green paddock somewhere
you ram from Tacitus!!! why!? did you not see he had the highest ability points on both counts of use I suggested?

first off he had the highest total ability points of all the horses 45. he cud have been bet on that alone

then if you pick out the top 3 favorites on the board and pick the 1 with the highest ability points, Tacitus was the top horse there as well.

so any how you turned he was the horse to win the race by race time..top on every list I had..and top of the Betting board as well. all of that made Tacitus absolutely certain to be in the triactor.

what you cud have done is to play your top 2 horses to win the for second as well.
that's your first 2 line line columns covered

let us number them from 1/1 is Sir W, 2 is Tacitus. you play to win 1 and 2/the for second you play 1 and 2 because you know who doh win coming second/for third you play Spinoff-IE-Joevia-WoW-Tax/the for fourth you play those guys again adding some of the impse and dem like Everfast, Master Fencer

if I had played the tri I would have played Tax from the place position. I wud play Tax to place, show, and for fourth and fifth too.

as I said horses like Tax are the guys you must pay attention too..and it is even better when the public ignore them. they they can pay huge
Last edit: 09 Jun 2019 21:16 by mapoui.

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09 Jun 2019 21:01 #372223 by mapoui
see what I told you about Bourbon War! he had no chance in the race at all. he was a toss all the way for me.

EverFast too. look at what I said about him: that his Jockey was the best thing about him. but the jock does not run for the horse.

Everfast is by Take Charge Indy..a very consistent factor as race horse and sire that horse. Take Charge Indy ran for the Tripe Crown exactly like all his sons now run...exactly like Everfast runs now, with win profile to match

every year now there is a Take Charge Indy colt chasing the Triple Crown and they all have the same record by the time of the KD..9 or 10 races with 1 win and 2 or 3 sooprise finishes in the tri..usually third.. at huge odds

that's consistency for you. any time you see a Take Charge Indy sired horse look at his win profile. if you see the 1 win look to see if he is horse for course and distance that day..that is the race he won and the distance he traveled was at the course under consideration.

if he is and his form is good and he looks the part in the post parade bet him to win with confidence.

that's his best chance to win again..where he won his first and only time, and at the same distance. but he likely wont pay much if anything because all the punters would be looking out for the same thing and when they see it they will jooomp all over it
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

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